Now, for the special Signpost that I mentioned last month, but before getting down to details, I'll give some background to the idea. Many, many Flat and N.H. seasons ago, long before the Racing Post was even thought of, I had this idea (or maybe I picked it up somewhere - I honestly can't remember) to make a close study of the connection between certain trainers and tipsters. To put it simply I reckoned that some well-known newspaper tipsters would have special access to a certain stable or stables. This would be revealed by the number of winners or winning naps they had from these stables. Once I had worked this out I was then in a position in the future to pay special heed to naps from such stables, and back them accordingly. It was quite a laborious task to work out the profitable connections, but it paid off. It's sad to realize that most of the tipsters and trainers I worked on then are now all gone. At some point I allowed my plan to lapse, and then it was always too much work to resurrect it. So, imagine my surprise when one day recently in Signposts I discovered this self-same idea all worked out for anyone wanting to take advantage of it. Look for the section in Signposts marked Tipsters'
Trainers. Underneath, it goes on to explain that it lists tipsters from their Racing Post Naps competition who are showing a profit from at least two wins from the stable of today's nap. This covers the current and previous year. That may not be exactly how I worked it out all these years ago, but it is near enough; and it sure saves a helluva lot of work! Let's have a look now at the example I mentioned last month from the random choice of the 29th July Racing Post. The first pairing mentioned is Steve Simpson of the Blackpool Gazette and trainer B.J. Meehan. They have a record of 4 winning naps from 7 and a profit of over 14 points. Today's nap from the connection is Carrizo Creek and it won at 5/1. Another listed pairing is Tony Lewis of The Star and trainer G.A. Butler. Their nap today is Nayyir and it won at 6/1. The best combination of the day is the North Correspondent of the Racing Post and Mark Johnston's stable. Their record is 21 winning naps from 42 and a profit of over 31 points. Today the nap is Darasim which won at 11/1. Finally, Garry Owen of the Scottish Daily Record (which I use every day) and trainer Sir Mark Prescott. Their combined nap is Fritillary and it won at 13/2. Of course there were unsuccessful combinations on the day, but still the system managed a profit of over 20 points. As I said last month, we can hardly expect this level of success all the time, but I hope that it's a Signpost that will be a good guide for some time to come.
I've come across some strange happenings in betting shops over the years, but I witnessed one of the most unusual the other day - and I thought I should share it with you. She was tall, attractive, wearing a long dress, and she was standing right beside me. Suddenly, she whipped up her ample skirts and started poking about in her pink panties underneath. Soon she unveiled something that was moist and wrinkled - a betting slip, that is - and started to smooth it out in front of my startled gaze. I tried hard to make out this hot tip, this beauty straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak, but she had disappeared to the counter before my eyes came back into focus. I began to wonder what the horse might have been called, and looked through a list of the day's runners to see if I could find one that could be appropriate. Here are some actual ones from that day's cards, honestly, that I thought might suit. First there was Ball Games, then Forest Queen or Go Between. I also considered Kinda Cute, maybe Most Saucy or Pure Brief. Finally I went for Peak to Creek. A sporting joke, this time from the world of boxing. An old grey-haired granny who was a boxing fanatic all her life decided that she would belie her years, join the current fashion and have a tattoo done, in fact not one but two. Inside one thigh she decided on a portrait of Frank Bruno and inside the other Mike Tyson. When they were complete she was not at all happy with the likenesses and called for the shop manager to register her dissatisfaction. He examined them and agreed with her that they were not particularly good, but he added, "Still, that one in the middle of Don King is absolutely brilliant."
I have to admit that the system I've selected for this month is something of an unknown quantity to me. It is not ancient because it is based on the Racing Post, but I seem to recall at some stage in my betting past having had some success with it; there are pleasant memories associated with it. If I were more organised I should be able to find the records, but since I can't I'll give it a trial run now and see how it does. I've just checked this Racing Post for the 29th July that is in front of me, and the system selection is Tahreeb - a winner at 6/4.
P.S. I've done more checking since then and it gives lots of winners, albeit most of them at fairly short prices. The staking plan given should be rather effective. Maybe this Gem is a real sparkler!
The rules to be applied in strict order are as follows: -
1. Use Racing Post.
2. For each meeting covered refer to the Selection Box which covers the selections of all tipsters.
3. Make a note of each most tipped horse in each race which is tipped by at least 8 correspondents
4. From this list delete any horse which does not have at least twice as many tips as the next most popular horse. To clarify the rule, if the most tipped horse has say 8 tips and the next horse has 4 or less, the horse will at this stage be retained on the list. If the next horse has 5 or more tips, the horse is deleted from the list.
5. From the horses left, delete any which are not in the top two on the Topspeed ratings. At this stage the horses left on your list will have at least 8 tips in the selection box and have at least twice as many tips as the next best tipped horse, and will be in the top two on Topspeed ratings.
6. From the horses left on your list delete any which are forecast less than evens in the Racing Post forecast.
Having applied the above six rules you may find that you have no horse left on your list. In this instance there is no selection for that day. The remaining horses are The Gem system selections. If you are left with more than one horse and just one bet is required, narrow down to one using the following rules.
7. From the horses left on your list take the one in the race with the least number of runners.
8. If still more than one horse left take the one in the race which has the lowest prize money to the winner.
This method should show a reasonable profit to level stakes, but if you wish to boost profits further use this staking plan. Increase stake by one point after each winner, up to a maximum of three points, and then decrease the stake by one point back to the opening stake - 1-2-3-2-1. The staking plan is only applied after a winner. Always revert to one point after any loser and stay on one point until a winner arrives.
Labels: Betting Systems