The meaning of the word Lore in my dictionary is given as - knowledge of a special or different kind. I'm going to use Lore as an appropriate acronym for my ratings idea that I mentioned in July, and which I've been asked to describe further. Here it is then - Less Obvious Ratings Evaluation - Lore. I would suggest using it in races where there is plenty of form available, and to the first four or five in the betting forecast, depending on the number of runners and using your own judgement.
Here, then, is an imaginary race of 8 runners, where 3 of the first 4 in the betting stood out on form from their last two runs.
Dubai Gold - 11 C and D, 6/4 fav.
Classic Cert - 12 and C, 5/2.
Carbuncle - 34, 6/1.
Now, on most ratings systems Dubai Gold looks a maximum selection, with Classic Cert a few points behind. Putting normal figures to it - 5 for a win, 3 for a second, 2 for a third and 1 for a fourth, with a course winner receiving 1 point, distance winner getting 1 point and C and D getting 3 points - the totals would be Dubai Gold 13 points, Classic Cert 9 points and Carbuncle a miserable 3 points. It looks quite clear-cut - Dubai Gold to win from Classic Cert; but just let's look a little closer. Remember, back in July I raised the matter of number of runners in a race and the value of a race. Well, here goes to put my figures to our above race. Dubai Gold's two wins were in small fields and with fairly modest prizes. Using L.O.R.E., here's how we rate Dubai Gold.
His two wins were in fields of 5 and 6 runners so we give him 5 points and 6 points for these. The values of the two races were £3,000 and £4,000 so we award 3 and 4 points for them. And, as before, 3 points for the C and D win.
That makes Dubai Gold's total points 5+6+3+4+3 = 21. Now let's see Classic Cert. It won a 7-runner race worth £5,000 and was second in a 6-runner race worth £6,000. For the win in a field of 7 it gets 7 points and for being second of 6 runners it gets 6 - 2 = 4 points. For race values it gets 5 points and 6 points and a further 1 point for its course win. So, Classic Cert's total is 7+4+5+6+1 = 23. Contrary to what we might have expected, Classic Cert is ahead of Dubai Gold by 2 points. Now we come to Carbuncle. He was third of 12 in a race worth £11,000 and then fourth of 14 in a race of £12,000. For being third of 12 he gets 12 - 3, 9 points, and for being fourth of 14 he gets 14 - 4, 10 points. The race values add on 11 and 12 points respectively. The total, therefore, is 9+10+11+12 = 42. So, the unlikely Carbuncle comes out clearly on top with double the points of the apparent maximum Dubai Gold. At 6/1, Carbuncle is certainly the horse I would be backing in that race. Finally, just to make it clear on race values, a race worth £5,499 would get 5 points but £5,500 or over is rounded up to 6 points. Incidentally, this is not the end of LORE, just the beginning, with other important ideas still to be incorporated.
We may return to them later.
And for a bit of fun, what would you suggest was the parentage of our imaginary selection Carbuncle? I'd say - by Ignition out of Aunty's Favourite! Meantime, how about a joke? A shy, romantic young man was buying his new girlfriend a birthday present and enlisted the help of her friend in his choice. Together they went to a smart fashion house where the friend suggested an elegant pair of white gloves with a furry lining. While the purchase was being made the friend bought for herself a pair of sexy, white silk panties; and in the course of the transaction the two small packages became exchanged, leaving the young man with the panties instead of the gloves. Unaware, he parceled them up and sent them to his girlfriend with the following note. "I hope you like your present which I thought might be suitable since I noticed that when we went out last week you weren't wearing any. Your friend helped me in my choice and at first suggested long, buttoned-up ones, but then she showed me hers and I liked the look of them so much that I bought similar ones for you. The lady in the shop agreed that white was best and assured me that although she had been wearing her white ones for over a fortnight they were still showing no signs of soiling, despite lots of rough hand contact. My only regret is that other hands could be touching yours before I see you on Friday.
Please wear them then and I shall be so excited to remove them and kiss the fair form underneath. Perhaps eventually you might wear my ring there which could link our lives forever. One last suggestion. I've been told that the latest fashion is to wear them with the top folded back, showing a little fur underneath. Till Friday, Yours, John."
Let's see if we can come up with a furry good system for this month. The one I've uncovered has the unusual name Nulli Secundus, and the Latin scholars among you will know that this translates as - Second to None. From my original circular for it I see that it is very selective, giving an average of only six bets per month, with selections on both the Flat and N.H. It quotes the following sequence of 10bets from a 3-month period. W 10/11, W7/1, L, W 9/2, L, W 8/1, W 11/2, W 15/8, W 15/8 and W 9/4. Odds-on selections are largely avoided and expected annual profits are around 200 points. It would be too much to expect all winners, and none second.
This method concentrates on a horse's last three runs. The only races you can follow are as follows: -
• Flat - 5f to 2 mile handicaps, inclusive.
• N.H. - any handicap race.
• The only paper suitable is the Racing Post.
1. Top rated on Topspeed.
2. Placed 1st last time out in a time faster than average, or placed 2nd, beaten under 2 lengths in such a race.
3. Placed in first four in at least one of previous two runs before being placed 1st or 2nd. Must have been beaten under 4 lengths or the race was run in a time faster than average. If the horse won one or both of its previous races then it must have been in a time no slower than 2 seconds above average. Average times can be found at the top right corner of the horse's form, denoted as - (fst 1.0s) or (slw 1.0s). If there is no bracket of faster or slower than average times when the horse was placed on its previous runs, there is no bet, unless the horse was 1st or 2nd last time out in a time faster than average.
4. On the Flat the horse must be a distance winner. In N.H. racing the horse must have won or ran well over the distance or ran well / won over 2 furlongs more or less.
5. There must be 6 or more runners.
6. Last run must be within 14 days.
7. No bet if favourite for race is forecast at 11/10 or less in Racing Post
8. No bet on All weather racing.
9. No bet in Amateur races.
Labels: Betting Systems