This formula is designed to locate the best value betting proposition of any racing day, ie. a long priced horse with a realistic chance of winning. Clearly, handicaps are the races in which a plan based on outsiders is most likely to succeed. They are more open than other kinds of races and winners and placed horses start at good odds. The difficulty of course is to locate viable bets at long prices when the basis of any good system must be form. Well it is my belief that a combination of factors - one statistical and one form related, can in fact be used to pick out an outsider with a real chance each day. As far as statistics are concerned, a survey over a three year period demonstrated beyond all doubt that in flat handicaps horses near the top of the weights hold the best chance of success. Class tells in racing, so they say and this is borne out by results in handicaps just as much as in other types of event. Here are the figures which underline the point:
48% of the winners of all flat handicaps are one of the top four in the weights.
62% of all winners come from the top six in the weights.
These percentages point to trends in the overall pattern of results that are just too pronounced to ignore. Whilst runners can and do come from lower down in the handicap, statistically they are most likely to stem from the group which heads the weights. As for form without which no system can hope to succeed, even one based on outsiders, it is a fact that many horses with sound win and placed form in recent runs do perform well, even though the market gives them only a slender chance of success. For example any horse good enough to reach the first four in each of it's last three races must have some chance of reaching a place again and may even win, despite whatever odds are fixed by the betting ring. The fundamental idea behing the OUTSTANDING OUTSIDERS formula is to combine these high-weight and form factors in order to pick out a horse at long odds that at the very least has a definite chance of running into a place.
In the first instance it is necessary to analyse each handicap on the days cards from the point of view of weight. This is done by applying a sliding scale based on the number of runners in a race. It is logical that in a really big field we should examine a wider range of high weighted horses in a race with fewer runners. Handicaps of ten or less contestants are ignored because starting prices are unlikely to be long enough for system purposes. The scale is as follows:
More than 15 runners - consider the first six in the weights
13 or 14 runners - consider the first five in the weights
11 or 12 runners - consider the first four in the weights
Using this scale for every handicap race on any given day, list any horse which ran first, second, third or fourth in each of its last three public meetings and which figures in the specified weight range for the number of runners in it's race (as above). Any horse which fulfils the criteria is an OUTSTANDING OUTSIDER. Most days you will have more than one possibility. If you prefer to just back one horse each day then select the Outstanding Outsider with the biggest forecast odds.
Labels: Betting Systems