Patience Pays

This month, Patience Pays. Well, I suppose it does every month, but that is the name of the classic system we'll be looking at this time. We have some results for it from the early l980s. In the 1983/84 National Hunt season it gave thirty-nine selections of which twenty-five were winners, with a profit, after tax, of over eleven points. In the 1984 Flat season there were fifty-three selections and thirty winners, giving a profit, after tax, of over seventeen points. And in the 1984/85 National Hunt season we had twenty-four bets, with sixteen winners and a profit of over ten points.

But first, I've been asked if I could find any more horses' names that may bring a smile to the weary punter's face as he wades through the Form Book! It seems that nowadays you would need a degree in Arabic to understand, or even pronounce, many of the names currently in use. And those names that display any kind of wit or originality of thought are as rare as Bin Laden supporters in the White House! However, I've found a couple that did the trick for me this month. The first is Wanna Shout by Missed Flight out of Lulu. And the second, Upstage by Quest For Fame out of Pedestal. Finally, I remember from a season or two ago a horse that belongs, I believe, to Sir Clement Freud, called Dig Up St Edmunds. The contradictory idea of that one appealed to me, especially if it won.

You've been patient so far. I hope it pays. Here is the system. As the title implies, this is a system for those who are prepared to wait for the occasional good investment. The average is less than two bets a week. If, therefore, this is the only system you intend to operate, the need for patience must be stressed. Do not be tempted to introduce rules of your own in order to increase the number of bets.

To find a selection, there are four rules which must all be satisfied. These are:

1. The horse must have won last time out, current season.

2. The forecast price of the horse must be 5/4, 11/8, or 6/4 - NOTHING ELSE.

3. It must be selected by at least one of the two main tipsters of the newspaper you use.

4. It must have run previously within the last twenty-one days.

Comments

I use the Daily Mail and all results quoted are based on the information given in this newspaper. Rules 2 and 3 mean that occasionally, and only very occasionally, the selection could be different from the one indicated by the Mail, but having checked other newspapers, nine times out of ten the selection will be the same and overall results and profits will be virtually identical.

Having decided on which two correspondents to use, stick to them. For instance, if using the Daily Mirror, you may decide to use Newsboy and Bouverie. Alternatively, you may prefer to use Spotform as one of your indicators, plus one of the other two, but whichever you decide, for consistency of results, stay with the same two. I use Robin Goodfellow and Gimcrack.

Profits quoted are based on level stakes. However, because of the high percentage of winners and the absence of any serious losing runs, it is feasible to use a fairly simple staking plan to boost profits. I show three ideas, not particularly new, but each one suitable for the pattern of results given by the selection method.

A. Increase stakes by one point after each bet, but the next stake should never be more than one point larger than the last figure in the Arrears column. This Arrears figure is achieved through adding together your losses and an expected one point win per bet. Following a winner deduct one point from the profit and then deduct this amount from the Arrears. Return to the starting stake when the Arrears are completely cleared. The following example demonstrates the procedure.

RESULT STAKE LOSS PROFIT ARREARS

Lost 1 1 - 2

Lost 2 2 - 5

Lost 3 3 - 9

Won 6/4 4 - 6 4

Lost 5 5 - 10

Lost 6 6 - 17

Won 2/1 7 - 14 4

Lost 5 5 - 10

Won 1/1 6 - 6 5

Won 1/1 6 - 6 -

At this point the Arrears column has been wiped out, and if you add up the profit and loss columns you will see there was a loss of twenty-two points and a profit of thirty-two points, making a single point profit on each of the ten bets.

B. Sequence: - 1 - 2 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 4 - 4 - etc, returning to one point after a winner.

C. Start by staking one point on each selection until a winner is backed. Then increase to two points and continue to stake two points until two winners have been backed, not necessarily consecutively. Then increase stakes to three points and continue to stake three points until three winners have been backed, not necessarily consecutively. Then increase stakes to four points, etc. Continue in this way until a predetermined number of points has been won or lost, and then revert to one point and start all over again. The actual number of points is a matter of personal choice. However, a suitable compromise might be to win ten points or lose twenty points. The following table illustrates the procedure.

RESULT STAKE PLAN PROFIT PLAN LOSS

Lost 1 - 1

Won 1/1 1 - -

Won 1/1 2 2 –

Lost 3 - 1

Lost 3 - 4

Lost 3 - 7

Lost 3 - 10

Won 7/1 3 11 -

At this point the coup ends for we have won more than our suggested ten points. The next stake would revert to one point and the procedure would be repeated. They say that you must be getting old when you start to reminisce, but anyway here is a personal reminiscence which takes us back to 1968, and it seems a whole lifetime ago. Another racing tale told out of school, again concerns the running of a Derby, this time the one of 1968. Remember who won it? I certainly do, with good reason - Sir Ivor. I had heard about Sir Ivor from Ireland over the winter and had backed it at all prices ante-post right up to the day of the race. But the day of the race was the problem. I was a fairly new teacher in 1968, and on the Wednesday of the Derby I had to attend a teachers' conference where something of vital curricular importance was being discussed - what it was I have no idea now - and even at the time my mind was more preoccupied with Epsom than Education. The conference was being held in the Assembly Hall of a large school, closed for the day because of the meeting, and was attended by all the top educational brass of the region, including the over-all Director of Education. To me, a new, young teacher, he was an awesome figure, the fount of all promotion and little short of God. Halfway through the afternoon session of the conference there was a break for coffee, and to my delight I noticed that it was around the time of the Derby taking place. I left the rest of my dedicated colleagues to their coffee and sneaked off, knowing that somewhere in the empty school I would find an empty room with a T.V. I did. I switched on, pulled up a desk to sit on and was watching the preliminaries when I heard something behind me. What I saw when I turned round made me glad I was wearing my brown trousers! There, coming into the room in his immaculate suit was God.

The Director of Education actually apologised for interrupting my viewing, but said that he had been passing along the corridor, heard the T.V. and thought someone had left it on by mistake. I decided quickly that it would be best to confess all, to try to explain what I was doing there. He seemed particularly interested to hear about my bets on Sir Ivor, although I didn't reveal to him the full extent of them. I soon realised that this idea of betting on horses to try to make money was something entirely out of his experience, but which at the same time seemed to fascinate and excite him greatly.

By this time the race had started and long before the field reached Tattenham Corner he was cheering on Sir Ivor like a madman. I was sitting as quiet as a well-behaved pupil. As the horses entered the final furlong I could see that Lester on Sir Ivor was moving out from the rail to pass Connaught and was going to win. I was quite calmly reckoning up my winnings. My new betting companion, on the other hand, was going utterly berserk as he drove Sir Ivor home to a length and a half victory over Connaught. He turned to me and said, "Thanks for letting me share that. It's about the most exciting thing I've ever been involved in." We returned together, somewhat drained, to the re-started conference. Just a few months later I got my first step on the promotional ladder.