data from 1986 to 2006, but excluded the 2005 meeting which was held at York. The Royal Hunt Cup (1 mile all age handicap) This race usually sees a field of 30 runners charging down the straight mile at Ascot. A tough race to find the winner, but hopefully these trends will help you narrow candidates on the day down to a manageable shortlist.
POSITIVE TRENDS
Recent win: Horses that have won at least one race in their last six have won 18 of the 20 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 18 of the 20 races.
Fitness: Horses that had been off the track for at least 32 days have a very good record recording 11 wins from 176 runners for a small level stakes profit of £4.50.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 7f LTO have 8 of the races from 119 qualifiers for a profit of £26.00 (ROI +21.9%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Age: Horses aged 6 or older have won just 2 races from 132 qualifiers (SR 1.5%) for a loss of £89.00 (ROI -67.4%).
Fitness: Horses that had been off the track for 15 days or less have won 4 races from 188 qualifiers for a loss of £113.00 (ROI -60.1%).
Distance LTO: Horses that raced further than a mile LTO have a dreadful record with just 1 win from 160 qualifiers.
Weight: Horses in the top 3 of the weights (inc. joints) have provided 1 win from 67 runners.
Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have won 2 races from 267 qualifiers. The last winner at such a price was way back in 1990.
Penalty carriers: 67 horses have run carrying a penalty for their last run, and just 1 has won (Macadamia in 2003).
Sex: Fillies / mares have won just 1 race from 42 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 22 for a small loss of £7.00 (ROI -31.9%). A further 6 favourites have been placed.
Position LTO: LTO winners have won 6 of the races showing a small loss of £7.00 (ROI -7%).
Some key comparisons:
1) Horses that have won at least once in their last six starts have been 4.6 times more likely to win than horses that have not.
2) Horses that won LTO have been 2.2 times likely to win than horses that did not win.
3) 5yos have the best record in terms of wins to runners – they have been 3 times more likely to win than 6yo+.
4) Horses off the track for 32 or more days have been 2.9 times more likely to win than horses returning within 15 days or less.
5) Horses that raced over 7f LTO have been 10.7 times more likely to win than horses that ran over distances in excess of 1 mile LTO.
How best to use the trends is a question I’m often asked. What I do is produce a shortlist of the most likely candidates. How to compile a shortlist I hear you ask? Well, by using these trends it should be possible to create a manageable shortlist. Few if any horses will match all the positive trends, and also have no negative trends. What you need to do is find the ones the “best fit” the trends. From here you should be able to produce a shortlist of the most likely winners from a statistical perspective. Your shortlist will not always produce the winner, but it will more often than not.
Another option is use a system based selection process. Here is a system for the Royal Hunt that has produced 70% of the winners from just 23% of the runners. Hence this system would have improved your winning chances by 3 times. The system is thus:
1. LTO ran over 7f or 1 mile
2. Age 4 or 5
3. Not carrying a penalty
4. Male horses only
5. SP 28/1 or shorter
6. 4th in the weights or lower
Using this approach would have narrowed down the 608 runners to just 139. On average therefore your system shortlist would have contained just 7 runners. Remember the average number of runners has been 30. If you had backed all runners in the shortlists you would have produced the following results:
Bets 139, Wins 14, Profit +£80.50 (to £1 level stakes), ROI +57.9%
14 winning years out of 20 is impressive and there would have been a very healthy profit to boot. An additional system rule concentrating only on horses that have won at least one of their last six starts would have increased profits slightly but cut the winners to 12:
Bets 106, Wins 12, Profit +£96.00 (to £1 level stakes), ROI +90.6%
The return on investment (ROI) has improved from a very good 58% to over 90%, while the profits have gone up £15.50.
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