System #13 Martingale Mod
Well, this system is a very simple, yet effective winning strategy. In fact, this system is about a very classic money management system, the Martingale double up system, that most of educated gamblers are convinced that using this method brings to disaster.
Honestly, this is absolutely true. If you use Martingale, it will eventually deteriorate your bankroll, despite the fact that you have been accumulating steady 1 unit profits over some time. If you limit the martingale to 3 to 5 steps in favorable situations, you can still make profits without severely damaging your bankroll. A 3 step Martingale risks 7 units and a 5 step Martingale risks 31 units (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16).
However, there is a way to use the martingale at sports betting in order to perform very well. The trick is to use a pre-determined series of Win/Lose games.
If you have a pre-determined Win/Lose betting sequence of 5 steps (say W, L, L, W, W) what are the chances that you will be right on all 5 bets. The answer is 50% (or 1/2) multiplied 5 times by itself, or 1 in 32.
That means that if you tell yourself that for the next 5 bets you will be betting W, L, L, W, W regardless of the outcomes of the games, there is 1/32 probability that you will be hitting all your bets right. This is a very low probability.
However, the opposite is also true, that the probability of hitting all your 5 bets wrong is also 1 in 32. That means, that if you use a pre-determined sequence of W, L, L, W, W, by using a 5 step Martingale betting method, you have a 31/32 or 97% chance that one of the 5 bets will hit right. Now this is a very high probability.
One important thing that you should know is that it is not unlikely to get the exact opposite pattern: L, W, W, L, L even if it will happen 3% of the time. The fact is, if you bet your pattern (W, L, L, W, W) continuously, statistically you should hit the opposite pattern within the next 32 bets. The result would be the lost of all your winnings. We don’t want this to happen.
So, the strategy will be to change the pattern after every winning sequence. This way you will be attacking the next 5 bets, with an equal probability of 97% winning chances from session to session.
This system works very well for all sports. However, what I like is to use this system during the baseball season. The reasons are simple. There is a lot of winning and losing streak in the MLB and with that in mind, most of the time use the simple series of bets (W, L, W, L, W, L).
So, when you select a team and apply this series to the system, chance are in your favor because this is a pattern that will not happen very often is the MLB.
Also, another fact is that 44% of all games are won by the underdogs. So, if your bet must be on the underdog or if you use the run line –1.5 for the favorite, your bet will stay very low and you will be able to use a 7 – 9 step martingale very comfortably.
Remember that when you use a martingale at sports betting, your next bet is always the sum of all your loses. Simply because the odds are never always the same. It is not like in a real casino.
But, you can use this system with any sports.
Now, let me refresh your mind about how works the martingale at sports betting.
Remember the series 1-2-4-8-16
You bet 1 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1) plus 1. So, the next bet is 2.
You bet 2 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1+2) plus 1. So, the next bet is 4.
You bet 4 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1+2+4) plus 1. So, the next bet is 8.
You bet 8 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1+2+4+8) plus 1. So, the next bet is 16.
You bet 16 and you win. Profit 16-(1+2+4+8) = 1 unit.
What is a martingale ?
I know that you know that. A martingale is a double up system to end a losing series with 1 unit profit. But why are we doubling up our bets ? Simply because in reality, when you use a martingale, you always bet the sum of all your loses plus one unit.
Do you clearly understand how works the martingale ? It is not a double up system, it is a “total lost plus 1” system!
If you think about it, you’ll realise that you can use a martingale with any kind of bets and odds. If you want to bet only on the Yankees at 1.50 (-200), here how it works.
You want to win $10. You place a bet of $20 (10/(1.50-1). You lose.
Your next bet is $20+$10 = $30 / (1.50-1) = $60. You lose.
Your next bet is $20+$60+$10 = $90 / (1.50-1) = $180.
Let’s take the Florida Marlins as example.
We will use this predetermined session: W, L, W, L, W
August 25, 2004
Marlins / Giants
(-1.5) 2.53 / 2.22
As for our first bet, we will place a bet on the Marlins because the predetermined series tell us to do that.
$100 / (2.53 –1 ) = $65.36
We place a bet of $65.36 on the Marlins at (-1.5) 2.53
Result: Marlins (5) / Giants (6)
We lose our bet.
Got it ?
Now, let’s see an example to clearly see how it works. Let’s say we want to win $100 every session.
We want to win $100 at odds 2.53
August 26, 2004
So, we will place a bet on the Giants.
The bet will be the sum of all our loses plus the amount we want to make ($100) / odds -1.
$65.36 + $100 / 2.46 –1
$165.36 / 1.46 = $113.26
So, we will place a bet of $113.26 on the Giants.
Result: Marlins (0) / Giants (5)
1) Chose a series you wan to use like (W, L, L, L, W) or anything else. Chose the amount you want to make with this series.
2) Select a team that you will use to place your bets using the predetermined series.
3) Place your bet for or against the team you’ve selected in order to follow the series.
4) Use the money line if the odds for “action” are too low.
Marlins / Giants
(-1.5) 2.34 / 2.46
For the second bet, we will place a bet against the Marlins, because the series tell us to do that. Remember the series is W, L ,W, L, W.
We win our bet. We clear our loses and make a $100 profit.
When you win the session, start another one with the same team or with another team. You can use the same series or use another one.
5) If you lose a bet, follow the progression by adding all your loses plus the amount you want to make and calculate your next bet using the formula.
6) If you win your bet, start another session with the same team or another team. Start at step 1.
Labels: Betting Systems