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### System #18 Underdogs

The next system is a system that use underdogs. This system is especially designed for betting on baseball. In other words, you will bet on baseball underdogs.
One very important thing that you should remember is that sports gambler loves their favorites. Oddsmakers know this and they know that the natural tendency of almost every sports gamblers is to think that the spreads, set by oddsmakers, represents how much a team is favored to win the game.
Well, the fact is that oddsmakers set the spreads based on public perception with the goal of getting 50% of bettors to bet on each team (each side). By doing this, sportsbooks are come out ahead no matter who win the game.
Now, I’ll keep this chapter short and to the point.
One thing you should know is that a lot of pro sports gamblers are using this system to make thousands of dollars every month with this system.
Fact: In baseball, there is a law of average showing that over an entire season, underdogs will beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (44%). Even with money lines of 2.25, 2.35, 2.50.
Example:
If you bet \$25 on 9 underdogs with odds of 2.35 (+135), you will make 4 X \$25 X 2.35 = \$235 – 9 X \$25 = \$225. So you end with a profit of \$10.
So, in order to help you select the best underdogs and this way, make more money, you will have to follow 3 simple rules in your selection of underdogs.
3 Rules to follow:
1) You must eliminate the game where the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. Remember that every baseball team face some long losing streaks as well as long winning streaks.
2) Eliminate games where the money line for the underdog are higher then 2.50 (+150). If this is the case, there is a reason and you must avoid these games.
3) Eliminate games where the underdog is facing a very good pitcher. If they’re facing a pitcher who’s in the top 20 of the MLB, move on to another selection. You can use any newspaper as well as a lot of web sites to have access to this information. www.tsn.com is a good one. The pitchers standing must be according to earned-run average (ERA).
So, everyday, if you follow these 3 rules on a day with as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs team to bet on.
Amount to bet:
It is really up to you. Betting around 1.25% to 2.5% of your bankroll is ok. So, if you have a \$1000 bankroll, 2.5% means that you will bet \$25 a game.
Now everyday, all you have to do is check the MLB schedule and eliminate the games following the 3 rules.
After that, you’re ready to bet !
Now, let’s see an example. We’ll take a look at a real week just to see how it works.
Day 1
Monday September 6, 2004
The underdog Philadelphia had won 3 in a row and the favorite had lost 1. The pitcher isn’t in the top 20. So, we bet \$25 on the Philadelphia. Result: Brave 3, Phillies 1. We lost \$25.
Astros (1.56) VS Reds (2.63)
Money line odds on Reds are too high. There is no play.
Pittsburgh (1.67) VS Milwaukee (2.35)
No team is on a streak. The pitcher isn’t in the top 20 and the odds are ok. So, we bet \$25 on the Brewers. Result: Pirates 5, Brewers 9. Profit +\$33.75
Chicago (1.33) VS Expos (3.70)
Money line odds on the Expos are too high. There is no play.
San Diego (2.42) VS St-Louis (1.64)
The cards won their 9 last games so there is no play.
Yankees (1.30) VS Devil Rays (3.90)
Money line odds on the Devil Rays are too high. There is no play.
Detroit (1.49) VS Kansas city (2.85)
Money line odds on the Royals are too high. There is no play.
Baltimore (1.79) VS Minnesota (2.17)
No team is on a streak and the pitcher is not in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Twins. Result: Orioles 4, Twins 1. Profit -\$25
Texas (1.42) VS Chicago (3.15)
The odds on the White Sox are too high. There is no play.
Seattle (2.22) VS Cleveland (1.76)
The Mariners lost their 5 last game so, there is no play.
Oakland (1.79) VS Boston (2.16)
No team are in a streak and the pitcher is not in the top 20. So, we bet \$25 on the Red Sox. Result: Red Sox 8, Athletics 3. Profit +\$29
Record for Day 1
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
2 2 +\$12.75 +\$12.75
Day 2
Tuesday, September 7, 2004
Pittsburgh (2.31) VS Milwaukee (1.68)
Pirates lost their 5 last game. There is no play.
Florida (1.48) VS New York (2.88)
The odds on the Mets are too high. There is no play.
The odds on the Phillies are too high. There is no play.
Chicago (1.31) VS Montreal (3.85)
The odds on the Expos are too high. There is no play.
Houston (1.30) VS Cincinnati (3.95)
The odds on the Reds are too high. There is no play.
Colorado (2.70) VS San Francisco (1.53)
The odds on the Rockies are too high. There is no play.
San Diego (2.17) VS St Louis (1.79)
The Cards pitcher is in the top 20. There is no play.
Los Angeles (1.49) VS Arizona (2.85)
The odds on the Diamondbacks are too high. There is no play.
New York (1.29) VS Tampa Bay (4.04)
The odds on the Devil Rays are too high. There is no play.
Baltimore (2.20) VS Minnesota (1.77)
The teams are not on a streak. The pitcher is not in the top 20. So, we bet \$25 on the Orioles. Result: Twins 3, Orioles 1. Profit -\$25.
Detroit (1.42) VS Kansas City (3.15)
The odds on the Royals are too high. There is no play.
Texas (1.59) VS Chicago (2.55)
The odds on the White Sox are too high. There is no play.
Oakland (2.00) VS Boston (1.91)
Derek Lowe is in the top 20. There is no play.
Anaheim (1.39) VS Toronto (3.25)
The odds on the Jays are too high. There is no play.
Record for Day 2
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
0 1 -\$25 -\$12.25
Day 3
Wednesday, September 8, 2004
Houston (1.29) VS Cincinnati (4.12)
The odds on the Reds are too high. There is no play.
San Diego (2.32) VS St Louis (1.70)
The odds are ok. No team is on a streak. Matt Morris is not in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Padres. Result: Padres 10, Cards 5. Profit +\$33.
Pittsburgh (1.67) VS Milwaukee (2.35)
Oliver Perez is in the top 20. There is no play.
No team are on a streak. Mike Hampton is not in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Phillies. Result: Phillies 4, Braves 1. Profit +\$35.50
Florida (1.33) VS New York (3.70)
The odds on the Mets are too high. No play.
Chicago (1.29) VS Montreal (4.12)
The odds on Montreal are too high. No play.
Colorado (2.03) VS San Francisco (1.88)
No team are on a streak. Kirk Rueter isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Rockies. Result: Giants 5, Rockies 3. Profit -\$25.
Los Angeles (1.26) VS Arizona (4.45)
The odds on the Diamondbacks are too high. No play.
New York Yankees (1.40) VS Tampa Bay (3.25)
The odds on the Devil Rays are too high. No play.
Baltimore (2.70) VS Minnesota (1.53)
The odds on the Twins are too high. No play.
Detroit (1.50) VS Kansas City (2.80)
The odds on the Royals are too high. No play.
Texas (1.94) VS Chicago WS (1.96)
No team are on a streak. John Wasdin isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the White Sox. Result: Rangers 2, White Sox 5. Profit +\$24
Seattle (2.15) VS Cleveland (1.80)
No team are on a streak. Lee Cliff isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Mariners. Result: Indians 9, Mariners 5. Profit -\$25.
Oakland (2.31) VS Boston (1.68)
Pedro Martinez in the top 20. There is no play.
Anaheim (1.29) VS Toronto (4.04)
The odds are too high on the Jays. No play.
Record for Day 3
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
3 2 +\$42.50 +\$30.25
Day 4
Thursday, September 9, 2004
Pittsburgh (1.94) VS Houston (1.96)
No team are on a streak. Oliver Perez is in the top 20. No play.
Pittsburgh (2.31) VS Houston (1.68)
No team are on a streak. Tim Redding isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25. Result: Astros 9, Pirates 2. Profit -\$25.
Cincinnati (1.76) VS Milwaukee (2.22)
No team are on a streak. Brandon Clausen isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Brewers. Result: Brewers 7, Reds 2. Profit +\$30.50.
No team are on a streak. Russ Ortiz isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Phillies. Result: Phillies 9, Braves 4. Profit +\$38.75
Colorado (1.95) VS San Diego (1.95)
The odds are the same. No play.
Los Angeles (1.28) VS Arizona (4.10)
The odds on the Diamondbacks are too high. No play.
Detroit (1.53) VS Kansas City (2.70)
The odds on the Royals are too high. No play.
Yankees (1.40) VS Tampa Bay (3.25)
The odds on the Devil Rays are too high. No play.
Texas (2.00) VS Chicago WS (1.91)
Mark Buehrle is in the top 20. No play.
Seattle (2.63) VS Boston (1.56)
The Red Sox are on a 4 wins streak. The odds on the Mariners are too high. There is no play.
Anaheim (1.45) VS Toronto (3.00)
The odds on the Jays are too high. No play.
Record for Day 4
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
2 1 +\$44.25 +\$74.50
Day 5
Friday, September 10, 2004
Pittsburgh (2.55) VS Houston (1.60)
No team are on a streak. Peter Munro isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Pirates. Result: Pirates 6, Astros 1. Profit +\$38.75.
The Phillies are on a 3 wins streak. No play.
Cincinnati (1.67) VS Milwaukee (2.35)
No team are on a streak. Josh Hancock isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Brewers. Result: Brewers 4, Reds 6. Profit -\$25.
Atlanta (1.38) VS Montreal (3.35)
The odds on Montreal are too high. No play.
Colorado (2.13) VS San Diego (1.81)
No team are on a streak. Brian Lawrence isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Rockies. Result: Rockies 4, Padres 10. Profit -\$25.
Arizona (2.00) VS San Francisco (1.91)
The Diamondbacks are on a 7 loses streak. No play.
Los Angeles (2.18) VS St Louis (1.78)
No team are on a streak. Jason Marquis isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Dodgers. Result: Dodgers 7, Cards 6. Profit +\$29.50.
Detroit (2.00) VS Minnesota (1.91)
No team are on a streak. Carlos Silva isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Tigers. Result: Twins 4, Tigers 1. Profit -\$25.
Baltimore (2.49) VS Yankees (1.61)
Javier Vazquez is in the top 20. No play.
Texas (1.60) VS Toronto (2.52)
Ryan Drese is in the top 20. No play.
Seattle (3.67) VS Boston (1.34)
The odds on the Mariners are too high. No play.
Oakland (1.43) VS Cleveland (3.10)
The odds on the Indians are too high. No play.
Anaheim (1.56) VS Chicago WS (2.62)
The odds on the White Sox are too high. No play.
Record for Day 5
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
2 3 -\$6.75 +\$67.75
Day 6
Saturday, September 11, 2004
New York (2.48) VS Philadelphia (1.61)
The Phillies are on a 4 wins streak. No play.
Pittsburgh (2.57) VS Houston (1.55)
No team are on a streak. Brandon Backe isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Pirates. Result: Pirates 5, Astros 2. Profit +\$39.25
Chicago (1.65) VS Florida (2.40)
Carlos Zambrano is in the top 20. No play.
Colorado (2.35) VS San Diego (1.67)
No team are on a streak. Adam Eaton isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Rockies. Result: Rockies 13, Padres 2. Profit: +\$33.75.
Atlanta (1.48) VS Montreal (2.90)
The odds on Montreal are too high. No play.
Cincinnati (1.74) VS Brewers (2.26)
No team are on a streak. Luke Hudson isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Brewers. Result: Reds 9, Brewers 0. Profit: -\$25.
Arizona (3.24) VS San Francisco (1.39)
The odds on the Diamondbacks are too high. No play.
Oakland (1.55) VS Cleveland (2.61)
The odds on the Indians are too high. No play.
Baltimore (2.62) VS Yankees (1.55)
The odds on the Orioles are too high. No play.
Detroit (2.10) VS Minnesota (1.83)
The Twins are on a 3wins streak. No play.
Kansas City (1.81) VS Tampa Bay (2.13)
The Devil Rays lost their 12 last games. No play.
Texas (1.53) VS Toronto (2.70)
The odds on the Jays are too high. No play.
Seattle (2.75) VS Boston (1.51)
The odds on the Mariners are too high. No play.
Anaheim (1.45) VS Chicago WS (3.00)
The odds on the White Sox are too high. No play.
Record for Day 6
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
2 1 +\$48.00 +\$115.75
Day 7
Sunday, September 12, 2004
Atlanta (1.48) Vs Montreal (2.90)
The odds on Montreal are too high. No play.
New York (2.30) VS Philadelphia (1.71)
Phillies are on a 5 wins streak. No play.
Cincinnati (2.20) VS Milwaukee (1.77)
Ben Sheets is in the top 20. No play.
Chicago (2.05) VS Florida (1.87)
A.J. Burnett is in the top 20. No play.
Colorado (2.37) VS San Diego (1.66)
No team are on a streak. Jake Peavy isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Rockies. Result: Rockies 2, Padres 15. Profit -\$25.
Los Angeles (2.42) VS St Louis (1.64)
Chris Carpenter is in the top 20. No play.
Arizona (3.00) VS San Francisco (1.44)
The odds on the Diamondbacks are too high. No play.
Pittsburgh (3.10) VS Houston (1.43)
The odds on the Pirates are too high. No play.
Detroit (1.89) VS Minnesota (2.02)
No team are on a streak. Nate Robertson isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Twins. Result: Twins 8, Tigers 5. Profit: +\$25.50
Baltimore (2.45) VS Yankees (1.62)
Jon Lieber is in the top 20. No play.
Texas (1.55) VS Toronto (2.61)
The odds on Toronto are too high. No play.
Kansas City (1.93) VS Tampa Bay (1.98)
No team are on a streak. Denny Bautista isn’t in the top 20. We bet \$25 on the Devil Rays. Result: Devil Rays 7, Royals 2. Profit +\$24.50
Seattle (3.00) VS Boston (1.45)
The odds on the Mariners are too high. No play.
Oakland (1.55) VS Cleveland (2.62)
The odds on the Indians are too high. No play.
Anaheim (1.45) VS Chicago WS (3.00)
The odds on the White Sox are too high. No play.
Record for Day 7
WIN LOSE PROFIT TOTAL PROFIT
2 1 +\$25 +\$140.75
By using the system, you end the week with 13 wins and 11 loses (54.1%). And all for underdogs. You make a great profit of \$140.75.
Fact to remember:
Fact: In baseball, there is a law of average showing that over an entire season, underdogs will beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (44%). Even with money lines of 2.25, 2.35, 2.50.
Rules to Remember:
1) You must eliminate the game where the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. Remember that every baseball team face some long losing streaks as well as long winning streaks.
2) Eliminate games where the money line for the underdog are higher then 2.50 (+150). If this is the case, there is a reason and you must avoid these games.
3) Eliminate games where the underdog is facing a very good pitcher. If they’re facing a pitcher who’s in the top 20 of the MLB, move on to another selection. You can use any newspaper as well as a lot of web sites to have access to this information. www.tsn.com is a good one. The pitchers standing must be according to earned-run average (ERA).
Good luck with this system!