System #3 - THE UNDERDOGS SYSTEM
Well, this system is very simple and it’s one of my favorite. I use this system every year during the baseball season. Since I use it, I never encountered a losing session. You’ll see how simple it is to earn a steady weekly profit through out the baseball season.
I developed this system a couple of years ago when I was working on some casino systems. The power of this system when applied to sports betting is that you can choose your own games and it could be an underdog!
Fact: The Martingale is the most popular betting system in the world. It is also called the “doubling-up system” and can be applied to any even money bet. When playing a casino game, the amount of the first bet is simply doubled after each successive loss, until one wins. After each win, the bet is reduced to its initial value and remains there until the next loss.
When one wins, one wins one unit. For example, an 11-step martingale would be : 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 = 2047 units. That is a large amount to risk simply to win one unit !
If you use this strategy for a casino game such as roulette, craps or at sports betting, the danger is that eventually a long string of losses will keep increasing the amount of your bet until the table limit or the betting limit is reached.
Yes, The Martingale is the oldest system for casino game. It is also the most dangerous system to lose all your bankroll.
When playing an even bet, the casino has always an edge over the player.
Let’s look at a roulette table. Let’s see with a French Roulette table.
There is 36 numbers plus one 0 for a total of 37 number. But now, for the purpose of this example, we will imagine a roulette table with only 36 numbers and no 0.
So, when betting on even chances like red and black, you have 50% of chance to win your bet.
Mathematically, in a perfect world, if you were betting on red, you should have 18 red (win) and 18 black (lose).
Winning total = 18 units – 18 units = 0
If you use a 5 step martingale, your series would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 units. You have to double up your betting amount every time you lose until you reach the 5th step.
Let’s do some maths.
You have 1 chance out of 32 to lose your series.
˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ = 1/32
That means that you have 31 chances out of 32 to win the series and make 1 unit.
So, usually, in a perfect world again, if you play 32 series, you will win 31 of them and make 31 units profit.
On the other hand, you will lose only one series and of course all your 5 bets for a total of ( 1+2+4+8+16) = 31 units.
Total profit = 31-31 = 0
Got it ?
This was of course without the casino edge! Now, if you ad the 0 or 00, you are GUARANTEE TO LOSE MONEY ON THE LONG RUN WITH A REGULAR MARTINGALE.
This is the same thing with the juice at the sportsbook. When you play with odds of 1.90 or –110, you will lose money on the long run with the regular martingale.
Ok, now, here’s the good news. I’ll show you how to turn the martingale in your favour and get an edge over the sportsbook.
What is a martingale ?
I know that you know that. A martingale is a double up system to end a losing series with 1 unit profit. But why are we doubling up our bets ? Simply because in reality, when you use a martingale, you always bet the sum of all your loses plus one unit.
Remember the series 1-2-4-8-16
You bet 1 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1) plus 1. So, the next bet is 2.
You bet 2 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1+2) plus 1. So, the next bet is 4.
You bet 4 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1+2+4) plus 1. So, the next bet is 8.
You bet 8 and you lose. You bet the sum of all your loses (1+2+4+8) plus 1. So, the next bet is 16.
You bet 16 and you win. Profit 16-(1+2+4+8) = 1 unit.
Do you clearly understand how works the martingale ? It is not a double up system, it is a “total lost plus 1” system!
If you think about it, you’ll realise that you can use a martingale with any kind of bets and odds. If you want to bet only on the Yankees at 1.50 (-200), here how it works.
You want to win $10. You place a bet of $20 (10/(1.50-1). You lose.
Your next bet is $20+$10 = $30 / (1.50-1) = $60. You lose.
Your next bet is $20+$60+$10 = $90 / (1.50-1) = $180.
As you can see, your bets will raise very fast and the risk of losing your bankroll is bigger.
Well, the beauty of this system is that you will get an edge over the sportsbook when betting on underdogs.
FACT: Over a complete baseball season, 44% of all the games are won by the underdogs. Yes, it is not a misprint, 44% of all games.
If you do your homework and you select only the good underdogs, you will easily bring this ratio to 50%. You can also pick an heavy favourite and bet the –1.5 run line. Most of the time, these odds will be from 2.10 (+110) to 2.85 (+185).
Like I said, if you do your homework, you will reach a 50% winning rate. It means that you have 1 chance out of 2 to win. However, the
odds will always be over 2.00 (+100). This is why you will win on the long run.
We will use a 8 to 10 step underdog martingale. Everyday, you’ll pick a good underdog.
Let’s say the odds are 2.35 and you want to make $10.
You will start a your series and bet $7.41. (10/(2.35-1)
The odds are 2.60
Your next bet will be the sum of all your loses plus the amount you want to make. In our case it’s $7.41+$10 = $17.41.
The next bet will be $17.41/(2.60-1) = $10.88
The odds are 2.20
Your next bet will be the sum of all your loses plus $10. $7.41+$10.88+$10 = $28.29
The next bet will be $28.29/(2.20-1) = $23.58
The odds are 2.75
Your next bet will be the sum of all your loses plus $10. $7.41+$10.88+$23.58+$10 = $51.87
The next bet will be $51.87/(2.75-1) = $29.64
Total Profit: $51.87 – (the 3 bets lost $7.41+$10.88+$23.58) =
This is only one win out of 4 bets (25% W/R) and you make an easy $10. Also, your highest bet was under $30. With a normal martingale, your 4th bet would have been $80.
Here’s the proof:
Now, we’ll do some maths because I want you to understand and see how you will make money on the long run. For the purpose of this example, we’ll assume that the odds are always 2.50 (+150) and we always want to make $10.
Let’s see what happen on the long run with a 10 step underdog martingale.
Remember, if you do your homework, you’ll easily reach a 50% winning rate.
Number of chance to lose the 10 steps: 1/1024 ( 0.097% )
˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝ X ˝
Number of chance to win the 10 steps: 1023/1024 ( 99.90% )
You see that you have less than 1% chance of losing and more than 99% chance of winning. Now let’s put some money on the table.
With odds of 2.50 (+150 ), your amount lost will look like this:
TOTAL = $1593.34
So, if you lose your 10 step underdog martingale, you will lose $1593.34.
However, because you have only 1 chance out of 1024 to reach a losing streak of 10 in a row, it means that you will win the other 1023 series.
Mathematically, after 1024 series, you will have won 1023 X $10, for a total of $10230 and you will have lost 1 X $1593.34.
GRAND TOTAL = $10230 - $1593.40 = +$8636.66
This is why this system work so well over the long run.
Personally, I use this system during the baseball season. I run 3 series at the same time. I never had to go over step 6 for the last 3 years. It is very cool.
Also, you’ll see than even if you don’t pick 50% winners, this system will works very well. The winning ratio if you win at step #10 is only 10% (1-9) but you still make a profit. Remember that without doing anything, the underdogs win 44% of the games.
1) Select the best daily underdog.
2) Start a new series every time you win a game within the 10.
3) When you lose, always make the total of your previous loses and ad the amount you want to win. Usually, you must keep the same amount a along the series. If you started with $10, keep adding $10.
4) You should always calculate the your next bet by adding all previous loses plus the amount you want to win and calculate your next bet with the appropriate odds. You only have to take the total you want to make and divide it by (odds – 1). If you want to win $100 at odds 2.45 (+145), you will have to bet $68.97.
5) You can run more than 1 series at the same time if you can afford to do it.
6) Every time you win, ad your profit to your bankroll and start a new series with the first amount you want to win.
7) You can use this system with any underdog and with any sports. However, it works better during the baseball season simply because there is more than 4500 games through all the year and baseball is the bookies worst nightmare. It is so unpredictable.
Labels: Betting Systems