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### System #8 Random Handicaps

The magic of this system is that you only need to win 36% of your bet ( 1/3 ) to make a profit. You can select your own game or you can find free picks from a lot of handicappers online. Reaching a 50% winning rate is very easy with good free picks. Go to Google and search for “Free Picks”. You’ll find a lot of handicappers who are offering daily free picks.
Ok, Now the system.
First, you need to know how to calculate your bet. So the formula is AMOUNT TO BET / (INTERNATIONAL ODDS – 1).
Let’s say you want to bet \$50 at 2.20. \$50 / (2.20-1) = \$50 / 1.20 = \$41.66
You need to bet \$41.66 to win \$50. \$41.66 X 2.20 = \$91.66 – \$41.66 = \$50
The system is very simple. When you lose a game, you will always bet the total of your last two bets.
Let’s see what happen with a 37.5% winning rate and a \$50 first bet.
L-L-L-W-L-L-W-W
Day 1
Write down the \$50 you want to make.
The odds are 1.91
You bet \$54.95 to win \$50
You lose.
Write down the \$54.95 bet next to the \$50 you had written down.
It should look like this.
\$50 + \$54.95
Day 2
The odds are 2.15
Your next bet is the total of the last two bets (assuming that \$50 was a bet) / (2.15 – 1). So it’s \$104.95 / 1.15 = \$91.26
You should bet \$91.26
You lose.
Write down the \$91.26 bet next to the previous two bets. Now it looks like this.
\$50 + \$54.95 + \$91.26
Day 3
The odds are 1.83
Your next bet is the total of the last two bets / (1.83 – 1). So it’s \$146.21 / 0.83 = \$176.16
You should bet \$176.16
You lose.
Write down the \$176.16 bet next to the previous three bets. Now it looks like this.
\$50 + \$54.95 + \$91.26 + \$176.16
Day 4
The odds are 2.10
Your next bet is the total of the last two bets / (2.10 – 1). So it’s \$267.42 / 1.10 = \$243.11
You should bet \$243.11
You win.
Cross out the last two bets you have written down. You do this (cross out the last two bets) only after a win. That leaves you with the \$50 bet and the \$54.95 bet. Now it looks like this.
\$50 + \$54.95 + \$91.26 + \$176.16
Day 5
The odds are 1.99
Your next bet is the total of the two bets we have written down / (1.99 – 1). So in our case it’s \$104.95 / 0.99 = \$106.01
Your next bet should be \$106.01
You lose.
Write down this bet next to the previous two bets. It looks like this.
\$50 + \$54.95 + \$106.01
Day 6
The odds are 1.75
Your next bet is the total of the last two bets / (1.75 – 1). So it’s \$160.96 / 0.75 = \$214.61
You lose.
Write down this bet next to the previous three bets.
\$50 + \$54.95 + \$106.01 + 214.61
Day 7
The odds are 2.45
Your next bet is the total of the last two bets / (2.45 – 1). So it’s \$320.62 / 1.45 = \$221.12.
You win.
Cross out these two bets. That leaves us with…
\$50 + \$54.95 + \$106.01 + \$214.61
Day 8
The odds are 1.90
Your next bet is the total of the two remaining bets / (1.90 – 1). So it’s \$104.95 / 0.90 = \$116.61
You should bet \$116.61
You win.
The session is over. You have recovered from all your loses and made a \$50 profit.
You won 3 bet and lost 5 bets. Winning rate: 37.5%
Now, here’s a simulation of a real year of betting with a 50% winning rate. 50% winning rate is just like flipping a coin. This is a simulation showing 4 months (120 days) of betting.
In this simulation, we’ll assume that the odds are always –110 (1.91). Sometimes the odds are higher and sometimes odds are lower. So –110 (1.91) is a realistic average.
Remember, 50% winning rates is easy to achieve because if you flip a coin, this is the W/R you’ll get on the long run.
Day Win/Lose Bet Amount Cash Net
--- ----------- ------------- ------ ----
1 w \$55 \$50 \$2550
2 L \$55 -\$55 \$2495
3 L \$115 -\$115 \$2380
4 w \$187 \$170 \$2550
5 L \$55 -\$55 \$2495
6 w \$115 \$105 \$2600
7 w \$55 \$50 \$2650
8 L \$55 -\$55 \$2595
9 L \$115 -\$115 \$2480
10 w \$187 \$170 \$2650
11 L \$55 -\$50 \$2600
12 w \$115 \$105 \$2705
13 w \$55 \$50 \$2755
14 L \$55 -\$55 \$2700
15 w \$115 \$105 \$2805
16 L \$55 -\$55 \$2750
17 L \$115 -\$115 \$2635
18 w \$187 \$170 \$2805
19 L \$55 -\$55 \$2750
20 w \$115 \$105 \$2855
21 w \$55 \$50 \$2905
22 L \$55 -\$55 \$2850
23 L \$115 -\$115 \$2735
24 L \$187 -\$187 \$2548
25 w \$332 \$302 \$2850
26 w \$115 \$105 \$2955
27 L \$55 -\$55 \$2900
28 L \$115 -\$115 \$2785
29 w \$187 \$170 \$2955
30 w \$55 \$50 \$3005
After 30 days, with only one bet a day, you’ve made an easy \$500 profit.
31 w \$55 \$50 \$3055
32 L \$55 -\$55 \$3000
33 L \$115 -\$115 \$2885
34 w \$187 \$170 \$3055
35 L \$55 -\$55 \$3000
36 w \$115 \$105 \$3105
37 L \$55 -\$55 \$3050
38 w \$115 \$105 \$3155
39 w \$55 \$50 \$3205
40 L \$55 -\$55 \$3150
41 w \$115 \$105 \$3255
42 L \$55 -\$55 \$3200
43 L \$115 -\$115 \$3085
44 L \$187 -\$187 \$2898
45 L \$332 -\$332 \$2566
46 w \$571 \$519 \$3085
47 w \$187 \$170 \$3255
48 w \$55 \$50 \$3305
49 L \$55 -\$55 \$3250
50 L \$115 -\$115 \$3135
51 L \$187 -\$187 \$2948
52 w \$332 \$302 \$3250
53 w \$115 \$105 \$3355
54 w \$55 \$50 \$3405
55 L \$55 -\$55 \$3350
56 w \$115 \$105 \$3455
57 w \$55 \$50 \$3505
58 L \$55 -\$55 \$3450
59 w \$115 \$105 \$3555
60 L \$55 -\$55 \$3500
After 2 months, you’ve made \$1000 profit.
Now let’s look at the next month with a very bad W/R of 43.3% and some bad losing streaks
61 L \$55 -\$55 \$3445
62 w \$115 \$105 \$3550
63 w \$55 \$50 \$3600
64 L \$55 -\$55 \$3545
65 L \$115 -\$115 \$3430
66 L \$187 -\$187 \$3243
67 w \$332 \$302 \$3545
68 L \$115 -\$115 \$3430
69 L \$187 -\$187 \$3243
70 w \$332 \$302 \$3545
71 L \$115 -\$115 \$3430
72 w \$187 \$170 \$3600
73 L \$55 -\$55 \$3545
74 L \$115 -\$115 \$3430
75 L \$187 -\$187 \$3243
76 L \$332 -\$332 \$2911
77 L \$571 -\$571 \$2340
78 w \$993 \$903 \$3243
79 w \$332 \$302 \$3545
80 L \$115 -\$115 \$3430
81 w \$187 \$170 \$3600
82 w \$55 \$50 \$3650
83 w \$55 \$50 \$3700
84 L \$55 -\$55 \$3645
85 L \$115 -\$115 \$3530
86 L \$187 -\$187 \$3343
87 w \$332 \$302 \$3645
88 w \$115 \$105 \$3750
89 L \$55 -\$55 \$3695
90 w \$115 \$105 \$3800
Now, you see that even with a poor W/R of 43.3%, you’ve made a profit of \$300. Not bad. With flat betting, you would have lost \$258.50.
Let’s take a look now at a better month. Lets see if you hit 56% winning rate.
91 w \$55 \$50 \$3850
92 L \$55 -\$55 \$3795
93 w \$115 \$105 \$3900
94 L \$55 -\$55\$ \$3845
95 w \$115 \$105 \$3950
96 w \$55 \$50 \$4000
97 w \$55 \$50 \$4050
98 w \$55 \$50 \$4100
99 w \$55 \$50 \$4150
100 L \$55 -\$55\$ \$4095
101 L \$115 -\$115 \$3980
102 L \$187 -\$187 \$3793
103 w \$332 \$302 \$4095
104 w \$115 \$105 \$4200
105 L \$55 -\$55 \$4145
106 L \$115 -\$115 \$4030
107 w \$187 \$170 \$4200
108 L \$55 -\$55 \$4145
109 L \$115 -\$115 \$4030
110 w \$187 \$170 \$4200
111 w \$55 \$50 \$4250
112 w \$55 \$50 \$4300
113 w \$55 \$50 \$4350
114 L \$55 -\$55 \$4295
115 L \$115 -\$115 \$4180
116 w \$187 \$170 \$4350
117 L \$55 -\$55 \$4295
118 L \$115 -\$115 \$4180
119 w \$187 \$170 \$4350
120 w \$55 -\$50 \$4400
You can see that after 4 months, with a winning rate of 50%, a bad month, some losing streak, you’ve made \$1900 in pure profit.
Now, as soon as you doubled you bankroll (\$5000 here), you start your session with a target of \$100. That means a bet of \$110 at odds –110 (1.91).
You will be able to make an easy \$1000 a month.
If you reach a point where your bet size is too high for you and you are reluctant to do so, then split your bet into two equal numbers or into 3 equal numbers, by writing them down and bet on the sum of the first two numbers. This will extend a bit the time of the end of the run, but will avoid reaching a bet size that is too high for you.