FAVOURITES BETTING SYSTEM for UK HORSE RACING
Would you like to be able to generate regular cash flow, tax-free, without leaving your home? Silly question. Of course you would. And this can be done in just 30 minutes each day! This is not another ‘money making scheme’ that is going to cost you a fortune ringing racing tipster lines, charged at premium rates. This is a system that anyone can follow, using the information contained in my detailed report. I use a simple staking system to minimise the risk to my investment and in order to build up my investment pot responsibly.
The aim of my system is to generate a steady stream of profits to provide an end of month tax free cash return. It has been devised to take no more than 30 minutes each day. There is no need to sit for hours studying form or to spend all afternoon sitting in front of a computer monitoring prices with the bookmakers or the betting exchanges. You will need access to a UK Racing Post newspaper and access to a betting exchange if you want to follow all parts of the system. You will need to be 18 years of age, or older, to use it.
We do not claim that this system will make you a guaranteed £10,000 within 8 weeks, or some other large amount within a short space of time. Such guarantees are worthless. This system has been designed to accumulate profits regularly and consistently, but in horse racing, as in other sports, nothing is ever guaranteed.
How do I do it?
Some punters frown on acquaintances who back favourites. ‘He only backs favourites’ they say with disdain, as though bets are only worth placing if you are taking a gamble on a big priced outsider in the race, rather than a favourite. The fact is that a good proportion of races, between 30% and 40%, are won by favourites. If you look at both 1st and 2nd favourites, the proportion can go up to 50%-60%, and if you include 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites, together they win between 70% and 80% of races. In fact there are some systems out in the market that only focus on the first 5 horses in the betting in any race, because horses at higher prices win very few races, especially in non-handicap races.
Having said that, if between 30%-40% of favourites win, that means that between 60%-70% of favourites lose. (How else would bookmakers make profits?). So how do we know which favourites to back, and as a corollary, which ones to lay? Imagine what a strong cashflow we will generate if we achieve both a high strike rate when picking winning favourites and when laying losing favourites.
This system aims to provide a steady cash stream from favourites. Backing favourites, it will not generate huge amounts of money in one hit, but generates amounts of profit consistently. Not every bet placed will be successful, but the weighting of winning bets to losing bets is consistently in our favour. There will be losing runs, but never for long, and equally there will be winning runs. The important thing is that the strike-rate is tipped in our favour!
3. What you need
Don’t worry, you do not need any previous knowledge of horse-racing or raceform to operate my system. You can operate this system even if you are a complete novice to horse racing.
To use all parts of this system, you will need to:
- be 18 years of age or older
- have a copy of the Racing Post newspaper
- have an account with a betting exchange on the internet, so that you can lay bets (don’t worry, accounts can be opened via the useful web-sites page.)
- have a basic level of numeracy.
By focussing on favourites that meet my criteria, the system should take no more than 30 minutes each day to make the selections and place the bets. (It can be done in your lunch break!) If you decide to invest every single day, then that’s 15 hours per month, or the equivalent of 2 working days for the returns achieved.
4. Staking system
Often punters will place a large bet on a short-priced losing favourite, and a small bet on a high-priced winner. The result is that they lose a lot of money on the favourite and do not manage to cover the loss, despite having the high priced winner. It is important to have a disciplined approach when deciding your stake.
Never gamble more than you can afford. The aim of my betting system, is to place small bets regularly and consistently to generate a monthly profit.
You must decide at the outset how much you are able to invest in your system and stick to it. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
By following a staking plan, the bets grow as our investment grows. At the end of the month, I withdraw profits for the month and start the new month with a fresh investment pot. In this way, I can generate a regular cashflow each month.
5. Frequency of bets
The system generally throws up 3 or 4 bets to place each day. These can be either back or lay bets, or both. On quieter racing days, there may be no bet at all. There may be other days where there are 7 or 8 bets to place. The precise number of bets will depend on the number of UK horse racing meetings and the types of races.
6. The System
The system consists of evaluating the favourite and deciding whether to bet or not, and then whether to back the favourite or ‘lay’ the favourite. Many favourites will be classified as ‘no bet’, but some will be classified as back bets, and others as lay bets. Precise details of the system and the analysis, complete with examples, are included in the full report, available from the DucisGold web-site.
The aim is to build up an investment pot by betting successfully on a stream of favourites until I withdraw profits at month-end.
Starting with a betting stake of just £10 per bet, we were able to generate a profit of £339 in September 2009. I bank profits on the last day of the month. Then I start afresh in the new month. In that way, the system can generate a regular but variable monthly cash income stream.
8. Other factors to consider
Recently, trainers have been required to declare their runners a full 2 days before the race is due to run, rather than just 1 day, as previously. This has led to more runners being withdrawn after the formal declaration, but before the actual race.
The change in the cut-off time for declaration of race-entries has meant that my bets are now placed much nearer the race start time.
Bookmakers versus Exchanges when placing back bets
Some bookmakers offer an extra incentive to place bets with them, by offering what they call ‘guaranteed’ odds. What this means is that if the on-course odds of the horse at the start of the race are higher than the odds offered when you placed the bet, then the bookmaker will pay out at the higher course starting price. This guarantee is not available on the betting exchanges.
Another advantage of bookmakers over betting exchanges is that the exchanges charge a 5% commission on the profits of winning bets, whereas bookmakers do NOT charge any commission.
However, generally if you compare starting prices at the course with the starting price announced at a betting exchange, for the same race, you will usually find that the exchange’s prices are higher. i.e. better for ‘backers’.
This can be a major consideration when placing multiple bets.
The Favourites system works for me. It is important that you find a betting system that works for you and your preferred style of betting. (Remember, all betting systems go through bad patches occasionally). Make your own judgement before you invest your money. For example, you might consider the following variants:
• If you hate losing at all costs, then you might try backing for a place, not a win. This could increase your strike rate to as high as 90%, but of course, the return each time will be much less because you will be paid at place odds. You might want to increase your Back stake accordingly.
• If your ambition is to be a bookie, then you might just place the lay bets. If you are a gambler at heart and think Laying bets is a travesty, then you might just place back bets.
• If there are several back bets in a day, you might back them in a double or a treble, so that you benefit from accumulated odds. Win doubles or win trebles, or even each way accumulators, are favoured by some of the professional punters.
8. Alternative systems
You might take the view that it would be far easier and quicker just to back all favourites, or to lay all favourites. I have found that my system returns better results than these alternative over-simplified systems, and at a managed risk level that I am comfortable with.
Let’s look at September 2009 as an example. My system’s strike-rate on back bets was around 70%. This is well ahead of the typical 30-40% strike rate that is achieved when you bet on all favourites.
9. Record your bets
Professional punters keep a record of their bets. If you open a separate account with a betting exchange and use it for bets under my system only, placing no other bets, then the exchange systems will hold all the records that you need. You will be able to download to a spreadsheet the outcome of all your bets, plus account statements and running profit & loss accounts.
10. Try the system
If you don’t want to risk any money on a system straight away, then try it out on paper first, for a week, or even for a whole month. Then if you are happy with it, try it out with real money. Simulating a system on paper first will also allow you to become familiar with the Racing Post newspaper racecards, the Racing Post betting edition web-site, and the system process, so that you are able to complete your bets much more quickly and confidently when you start for real.
Labels: Betting Systems