Favourite Backer - Horse Racing System
The fundamental aspect of the Favourite Backer system is that we are seeking to back, as you might have guessed from the title, horses that go off as favourite. But not just any old favourite - just those which meet the selection process (revealed in the next chapter).
Those horses that do meet the selection criteria are then backed using a "stop at a winner" staking methodology calculated to return a number of points profit set by the user for each winning selection and recovering any losses along the way plus the profit target.
What you classify as a "point" and how many points profit per winner to aim for is entirely a matter for the individual. For our own purposes, we operate a profit target of 2.00 points per winner as per our logo on the front page of this e-book.
You may use £1 as a point with a profit target of £2 or £5 per point and a profit target of £20 - it really is up to you and what you feel comfortable with. But do remember the golden rule - never bet with money you can't afford to lose.
As soon as a selected horse wins then we stop betting for that day as the profit target has been achieved and we start all over again on the next day. If a selected horse is beaten, then the recover part of the staking methodology kicks in and we recalculate to recover losses plus achieve the profit target from the next selection with the knowledge that as soon as a selected horse wins, losses are recovered and the profit target is achieved. Then the cycle begins again the following day.
A typical betting day might look something like this: Three horses meet the criteria The first one wins, profit target achieved, stop betting for the day. The first one loses but the second one wins - losses are recovered and profit target achieved If all three lose, then the idea is to roll over losses and recover from the next days' selections
Don't worry if that sounds a little confusing as we give you examples later in the book. Naturally, a run of losers can push up the stake considerably so back to the golden rule of never betting with money you can't afford to lose.
Although you will always be in profit after a winner and our selection finding criteria is designed to give strongly fancied horses, losing runs are a sad fact of betting on the horses.
However - as you can apply the selection principles and staking plan to other sports you may be more comfortable betting on football matches, tennis or anything else if the horses are not for you. Or even a combination of sports - all outlined in later pages.
The Selection Process
Now you know the fundamentals of the system, it's time to explain the selection process to you - it's quite straightforward. Pretty much all you need is access to the Racing Post web site
It's an incredibly in-depth web site offering all the information we need to arrive at system selections. Now, here's the selection process in simple steps: go to the Racing Post web site and log-in click on "cards" towards the top left hand side to view the cards for the days' meetings disregard any selling, claiming and "banded" races - we do not select from such races from the races that remain at each meeting, work through each one noting down the forecast prices of the first and second favourites Click on the "selections" icon underneath the list of runners, which will display a list of newspaper tipster selections for that race. Note down the number of selections for the forecast favourite repeat the process for each qualifying race (remember - no sellers, claimers or banded races)
Now you have the bare information you need from which to get the days' system selections. Now it's just some simple mathematics to arrive at the selected horses on which to consider placing a bet.
From the information you've gained from the steps above, do the following for each race: calculate the difference in forecast price between the first and second favourite and allocate one point to each point of difference (for example if the favourite is 6/4 and second favourite is 3/1 the difference is 1.50) allocate one point for each tipster from the "selection box" who thinks the forecast favourite will win add the two figures together
The three horses with the highest combined figures are the selections for that particular day. You may decide on more or less than three - it's up to you - but we like to use three horses per day.
Example: 1.30 Doncaster - price difference 1.50, number of tipsters, 9 = total 10.50 2.00 Doncaster - price difference 3.00, number of tipsters 11 = total 14.00 2.30 Doncaster - price difference 2.75, number of tipsters 8 = total 10.75 3.00 Doncaster - price difference 1.25, number of tipsters 7 = total 8.25
The system selections are the forecast favourites from the Racing Post in the 1.30, 2.00 and 2.30 races at Doncaster. If the actual favourite is different for any reason then we stick with the horse identified as the selection after going through the process above.
Now you know the fundamentals of the system and how to arrive at the system selections, it's time to explain the staking to you - how to get your profit from each winning selection, how to stop at a winner, how to recover losses.
Remember you read earlier that this system is all about deciding how many points profit you want per winning selection , stopping at a winner, starting again each day after a winner and recovering losses as we go - well, the staking plan governs this.
To arrive at the amount to stake on a system selection, the "magic formula" is to divide the right hand number in the odds by the left hand number and multiply the answer by the number of points you are attempting to win.
For example - if the available price is 6/4 and you are attempting to win 2.00 points then the calculation is 4 divided by 6 multiplied by 2. The answer is 1.33. If you are backing at £1 a point then your stake is £1.33.
Example: On a working assumption of £1 per point and a profit target of 2.00 points, it looks like this. Using the three Doncaster races from the pervious chapter as an example.....
Doncaster 1.30 This is the first selection of the day and we are trying to win 2.00 points. The selection is available to back at odds of 6/4. You know from the above calculation that your stake is £1.33. If the horse wins, then we stop for the day as the profit target has been achieved. If the horse loses, then we move on to the second selection seeking to recover the £1.33 loss plus the 2.00 profit target meaning we're trying to win 3.33 points from the next selection.
Doncaster 2.00 The selection is available to back at odds of 5/4 and we're trying to win 3.33 points. The staking calculation is 4 divided by 5 multiplied by 3.33. Thus, the required stake is £2.66. If the horse wins, then we stop for the day as the profit target has been achieved. If the horse loses then we move on to the next selection seeking to recover cumulative losses plus the 2.00 profit target. For the sake of this example, the second selection has lost as well as the first. We have cumulative losses of £1.33 and £2.66 = £3.99 Add to that the 2.00 profit target meaning we're trying to win 5.99 points from the third selection.
Doncaster 2.30 The selection is available to back at odds of 2/1 and we're trying to win £5.99. The staking calculation is 1 divided by 2 multiplied by 5.99. Thus, the required stake is 3.00 (rounded up). If the horse wins then we've recovered losses and achieved the profit target so that's it for the day. If the horse loses then we carry forward the cumulative losses of £6.99 meaning we're trying to win 8.99 points from the first selection on the next day.
The selection methodology should identify strongly fancied runners with the theory being that because they are "strongly fancied" they should win more often than not and by covering three each day, one should win meaning the profit target is met.
Now you know all you need to know in order to put the favouritebacker.com system in to operation. If you do intend to use the system, we suggest that you "paper trade" for a while first without actually placing a bet until you've got the hang of it and feel confident enough to leap in for real.
Remember - as you can see from the above example, losing runs mean an increasing amount to stake on subsequent selections until a winner arrives. This system really does deliver a profit after each winner but do beware of the increased stakes in the event of losing runs.
The principles of this system can be applied to just about any sport as explained later in this e-book and you may feel more comfortable applying it to a sport you feel you know more about and/or has fewer "uncertainties" than horse racing.
As touched on earlier, it's possible to apply the system principles to just about any sport. Just identify your selections as best suits you, set your profit target and apply the staking methodology. It's as straightforward as that.
For example in football you might go for three strongly fancied home wins as long as you knew the result of one game before betting on the other if you needed to.
Similarly you can apply the general system principles to tennis, rugby, cricket or pretty much any sport you wish - or a combination of them. As long as you set your profit target and apply the staking methodology then any winning bet on any sport will deliver your profit target.
Labels: Betting Systems