Avoid the big name clubs, who are invariably bad value because of their public following.’ – racing bets guru Mark Coton on football Market tide should rarely be your tide. Market kills profit, market drop odds; market is mob of lotto players misleading a pro.
‘A proven winning player who has a long, winless run because of injury, illness or a change of clubs will tend to show vastly improved form once he gets on the comeback trail.’ Your statistical data can be invaluable to your future betting success.
‘From my experience a good number of the lines are compiled by the office junior who doesn’t have a clue what they are doing, and even if you spend an hour working out what the lines should be from the stats then you should make a decent profit.’ William G Nevin, US sports expert and former head of sport for BetUSA.com, prior to the 2008 Superbowl, on why specials (or prop bets, as American punters know them), can offer value. Combined with market turbulence in movement, masking and skimming from bookers there will always be passages for those seeking them.
‘I’ve won all my life and what I do is very simple. I am a contrarian. I take the team that nobody wants to back and that way I always get value. The team I am backing have been losing, they’re angry, they’ve got a big target on the opposition’s chest and they’re going for them.’ Top US sports betting handicapper (tipster) Wayne Allyn Root in February 2008, who insists, ‘I have never had inside information. I don’t want information.’ He also believes, ‘Early money is smart, late money is the guy on the street looking to get a bet on before kick-off.’ There is no sure bet. If you can calculate potential risk with stakes and losing margin, of you can manage your money well your success will depend on all that contrarian or not.
‘The best point-spread in a [American] football game may fluctuate during the days leading up to the game. Pros bet early in the week, because that’s when the betting lines are weakest. As the lines move in response to the pros’ bets, the lines become harder to beat because they more closely reflect the direction in which the money is moving, or being bet.’ – The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Gambling Like a Pro, 1996 Your choice should not be dependent upon odd price. The bigger the price on selected event, the better is amount on the win.
‘Oppose favourites that performed much better than expected in the previous week. The average bettor thinks such teams are at the start of a hot streak. This is a classic case of what psychologists and economists call the “winner’s blessing” effect. On average, these punters are just plain wrong. Still, the money goes down in support of their misguided beliefs, and shortens the odds of the “hot” team below what they should be.’ Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams points up a theory supported by a prestigious study into this phenomenon in US sports (Betting To Win, 2002). Never base your bet solely upon recent history. This combined with don’t expect to win will lower your stakes and your risks to affordable.
‘Don’t be drawn into backing teams solely because they have a big-name quarterback…look for teams who improved towards the end of the previous season, as the momentum can often be carried over’… – Phil Agius of The Post with NFL advice. Don’t go crazy about names. That is sure way to big lose over small odds.
‘If the perfect betting system existed, bookmakers wouldn’t.’ – Graham Sharpe Nothing is perfect. But being unperfected system still gives a way much space for profitability.
‘Systems? Bookmakers love them.’ – jockey-turned-author Jack Leach Loved them or not you play your game let bookies play theirs.
‘Ignore my tips.’ – Racing Post star writer Jon Lees Don’t be too sure of anything protect your bets, your stakes your everything.
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