‘Would have won is the same as losing.’ – Dave Nevison, February 2008 Idea is to win. Win win win. 90% of bets, more welcome less can be handled and put coverage bet of losing in first or worst second try. Have all in circle leading to profit!
‘A tip is an opinion. It might be a strong opinion – one stated with some conviction – but it’s still an opinion, and if all of them were bang on target then there wouldn’t be such things as horse races.’– Jeffrey Bernard, 1991 No bet is sure thing that’s why is called bet and gamble. Even pro lose at times. Only difference is pro ass is covered.
‘The “gambler’s fallacy” is the belief that the probability of an event is decreased when the event has occurred recently, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent across trials.’ – Dek Terrell, Kansas State University, 1994, with an observation which can affect many types of betting from casino numbers to lotteries to horse racing. Low odds, highs odd are market movement. It s bookies that try to cover their players stakes with adjusting odds to fit demands. All the numbers are turbulent, it s research that makes higher odds win and lower go bust. That tied with uncertainty is to show blind and high wont work, but research and gut can improve.
‘You would be amazed at how many people turn down great value bets on the grounds that the price was too big to be true.’ – Paul Kealy, Definitive Guide to Betting Exchanges Consult odds both dropping and rising but never decide bet upon the odd. Marker price of odd generated upon market movement and bookies covering their hot are to confuse not to reassure.
‘Following gambles is a sure way to the poorhouse and always has been.’ – Matt Williams, Racing Post exchange betting guru, 2005 When I m talking covering, I m not saying following. If you follow because wasn’t might easily will not be again. All trials are independent and different to themselves and one another.
‘Taking advantage of other people’s over-reactions is one of the easiest ways to make money out of any sport.’ – Paul Kealy, 2005 If you look at the market movement you can easily see dropping or rising odds. Then you can chose either to follow on it or to avoid it to bet with market or against it.
‘What is one man’s idea of buying money is another’s idea of an unbelievable lay.’ Paul Kealy of the Racing Post reminding punters to ask for any price they fancy. Bet early on favorite bet late on rising odd. By doing this you can do even arbitrage at same bookie. Get sure bet and win fair percentage no matter what happens in match.
‘If you are betting in-running on a televised event, and are pretty clued-up about that sport, you will often be able to profit by remaining uninfluenced by a biased or inexpert commentator who may well be pointing less experienced viewers and gamblers towards the least likely outcome.’ – Graham Sharpe Hear but think. Watch but do not follow blindly. There s huge difference between heard said and sure outcome.
‘I can see that they – exchanges – sometimes offer great value if you’re a punter but you’ve always got to ask yourself if you could be betting against someone who knows a bit more than you.’ – racecourse bookie Andy Smith Odd is to be taken with precaution. There is no sure thing but also at times higher might come like through cheese while lower might happen to be difficult to profit from. Odd and price on bet should be taken as pointer never as decider.
‘For a potentially rumbustious fixture you are never going to be offered a spread which represents value for money to buy.’ – Under the heading Always look up for safe harbors. Events that are not needle eye in news and bookies charts. Look for events that are low profile and not so much market turbulent among gamblers.
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