This ingenious system takes full advantage of one very valuable piece of information, to be found only in the Racing Post.
At the bottom of each race meeting there is a section called TRAVELLERS CHECK. This shows which trainers have travelled the farthest distance from their home base to the meeting in question. The number of miles travelled is clearly indicated, and we are going to concentrate on those trainers who have travelled 250 miles or more with just one horse. Here then is the simple procedure.
STEP ONE: Make a shortlist of those races where a trainer has travelled at least 250 miles with just one horse - these can be seen at a glance. Eliminate from the shortlist any race where two or more trainers featured in Travellers Check with only one horse are entered in the same races. Occasionally, two trainers will travel a similar distance with the idea of winning the same race. Although we could, I suppose, split our stakes and back both, I prefer not to. We usually have several shortlisted races, so we can afford to be more selective.
STEP TWO: Our next task is to list our shortlisted races in order of priority, according to the amount of prize money on offer to the winner of individual races. Please note that the distance travelled has no further bearing on our final selection. That's to say, a trainer who has travelled 300 miles with one horse receives no priority over a trainer travelling "only" 250 miles. Therefore our days "Best Bet" can be defined as follows: The race where one trainer has travelled at least 250 miles with just one horse for the least prize money.
Trainers travelling 200-249 miles: Some days there will be no trainers who have travelled as far as 250 miles, in which case we will need to lower our sights., but the following ruling is to be used only in the event of there being nothing suitable at 250 miles or more.
First we make a shortlist exactly as stated earlier, but in this case the trainer must have travelled at least 200 miles with just one horse and the most precise way to work out the days "Best Bet" is with the aid of a cheap pocket calculator.
Let's suppose we have a shortlist of two trainers, each having travelled over 200 miles with just one horse. Trainer A is entered in a race worth £2,782 to the winner and has travelled a total of 223 miles. Trainer B has travelled 214 miles for a prize of £2,506. Taking our calculator we divide the prize money of each trainer by the miles travelled to find out how much each trainer stands to gain PER MILE TRAVELLED. Like so:
TRAINER A £2,782 divided by 223 = £12.47 per mile
TRAINER B £2,506 divided by 214 = £11.71 per mile
We can see that trainer B, with £11.71 for each mile travelled, stands to gain THE LEAST and is therefore the "Best Bet". On most days the "Best Bet" will stand out from the rest without the aid of a calculator.
But generally speaking - the lower the prize money, the more ludicrous the suggestion that the trainer will have gone to all the time, trouble and expense involved for nothing.
I've known trainers travel well over 300 miles with only one horse for less than £700 prize money - it wouldn't pay the bus fare! Obviously, the only way the trainer can make it pay is to have a substantial wager on his own horse, which brings me to another very important point:
Not all of our selections will actually trying to win the race. We must bear in mind that the majority of our selection are coup horses, running at big starting prices. Many will have deliberately lost their last three or four races in order to "bump up" the odds. Suppose a coup horse is quoted at 12/1. If the trainer was to bet say, £10,000 EACH WAY on his own horse he would make £20,000 clear profit if the horse finished only third - perhaps ten times more than the prize money he would have received for winning! Therefore, some days our "Best Bet" will be each way, on other days straight win, and where one draws the line between each way and straight win is really a matter of personal preference.
Unlike many of my contemporaries, I have always believed that any selection priced at 9/2 or more is worth backing each way. There are those who would never consider an each way bet at such "low" odds, but I have always found this both logical and profitable. For example, £20 straight win at 9/2 would bring returns of £110. £10 each way on a 9/2 winner would bring returns of £75, equivalent to £20 win at 11/4, which is quite a respectable return on the day. Plus there is a great advantage of breaking even on the day, should our selection only manage to squeeze in the frame. It also ensures that there are no long-losing runs.
STAKES: I recommend that you commence with enough stake money for 12 bets, or one racing fortnight. We require no real staking system as such, as level stake profits are assured, but below I have included a staking table, which allows us to manage our level stakes to best effect:
The essential thing to remember is that after choosing the appropriate Staking Line we stick with it. Suppose you wish to start with a total fortnightly bank of £25. This will put you on Line 1. Your £25 is enough for 12 days betting at either £1 each way or £2 straight win, depending on the days S.P. As soon as you have made £25 profit, you are able to graduate to Line 2 stakes. Let's suppose that it took you two average weeks to earn the £25 needed to graduate from Line 1 to Line 2. It would then only take one average week to obtain the £25 to graduate from Line 2 to Line 3, because now you have twice the stake money to do it with! To put it another way, to get from Line 1 to Line 2 we need to double our total bank. To get from Line 8 to Line 9 we need to add only about one tenth to our total bank. Once the bank has reached £250 it is back to Line 1, just adding a nought to all the figures on the chart, ie. £10 each way or £20 win.
After each loser we stay on the same stake. After each winner we add our total returns to the remainder of the bank and compare the amount to the figures in the right hand column to see if we have enough to graduate to another line. You are of course, free to add stakes or withdraw spending money after each winner as you choose.
Each and every racing day, week in and week out, horses win comfortably at big starting prices. Few of these win by accident and such winners are seldom a shock to their owners and trainers. I have yet to find a system capable of detecting all such horses, but this system will, at least detect some of them, and let's face it, one good "coup" a day is all we need.
I have divulged to you some very sound principles, which will earn you consistent profits and which will last you a lifetime, but what I cannot give you is the "feel" or "gut instinct" for racing that can only come from experience.
If you are conscientious you will keep a brief record of all betting transactions. This will include the name of each horse, trainer, jockey and race meeting. Also the distance travelled, amount of prize money and of course, the result.
In this way, you cannot fail to notice discernible patterns emerging. You will come to realise that there are a few rather foolish trainers around, who would indeed travel to the ends of the earth with just one horse, with no realistic chance of ever being placed, and other shrewd trainers, who would never do so unless they could come up with the goods 90% of the time. Weed out the bad, concentrate on the good.
Although "form" plays no active part in our assessment, it is a good idea to list each horse's form on your record sheet. I think you will be truly amazed to discover just how many horses lose three races, win one, lose three, then win another, with absolute consistency.
In other words, once the individual trainer's "coup pattern" has been discovered, it is possible to spot a "coup" even when a horse is not a longest traveller!
Of course, each individual trainer has his own unique method of pulling-off such strikes, and listing each horse's form is the surest, and simplest way of spotting such coups.
Follow my instructions blindly and you will still make very good profits, but the key to being a successful professional always lies in observation, never complacency.
Labels: Betting Systems