Precision Racing Systems - PJ1
Introduction - Precision Racing Systems - PJ1 is based on one of the more well known winner finding factors, that of beaten favourites. This may not at first sight seem an original idea, and you would think that it was unlikely to gain any sort of edge. However, by selecting only certain types of races, and applying a few simple qualifying measures to these races, vastly improves the `value` nature of the selections. This system comprises of slightly different rules for chase and hurdle races, although both types of races are utilized in the overall operation of PJ1.
Beaten Favourites - In utilizing beaten favourites last time out the system immediately focuses on horses which were either considered to be the `form` horse in its previous race, or had been made favourite by the weight of money placed (or obviously both.) A horse that won its last race as favourite also meets this criteria, but is generally well backed and starts at considerably lesser odds than a beaten favourite. In the case of hurdlers, the finishing positions in the qualifying last run does not seem to have any great effect on results. i.e.2nd, 3rd, 4th or unplaced. If the horse was favourite in its last race and the trainer runs him within 14 days, he obviously believes he is capable of going well again. Due to the competitive nature of the type of race used, value is obtainable about selections despite their previous finishing position. In chase races, a marked value advantage was identified in selecting only horses that had finished 4th or worse in its last race. During testing, a similar percentage of winners were identified whether the finishing position as favourite in its last race was in the first three, or 4th or worse (26% winners in both cases.) However, betting beaten favourites placed in the first three last time made a small loss, whereas the horses beaten into 4th place or worse realized a tidy profit when backed next time out. These animals are not so attractive to the average punter, and start at better odds. The difference between the two types of horses, their finishing positions, and the pattern of winners and starting prices is not one that is easily explained. All I will say is that the pattern has been noted over the past two seasons and should not be ignored.
Within 14 days - By limiting qualifiers to those who were beaten favourites in the last 14 days, the selection has good recent form. As we will be concentrating on handicap chases and hurdles, getting a quick run in before the a horse is re-handicapped is obviously a factor.
Handicaps Only - Initial tests were carried out on all types of races. Using beaten favourites running within 14 day, non handicaps for chasers produced 23% winners and a loss of more than £37 to £1 level stakes. Using handicap chases only, the percentage was less at 18%, but a profit in excess of £10 to the same stakes was realized. A similar picture was found in the case of hurdlers. The only restriction is to avoid conditional jockeys races. It is hard enough to select a suitable horse, that will jump well, without worrying about the quality of the jockey.
Size of Field - Testing backed up the theory that handicap races with 12 runners or less were more predictable as a betting medium. The number of fallers and errors made increases in proportion to the number of runners in a field.
• System operates from 1st November to 30 April.
• From your daily or racing paper, identify all handicap chases and hurdles with 12 or less declared runners. (Ignore conditional jockeys races)
• For hurdle races, identify those runners that were beaten favourites last time out (BF), and that had run within the last 14 days. Finishing position is any, including fell, pulled up etc.
• For chase races, the same rules apply, apart from the fact that the horse must have finished outside the first three on its last run, i.e. 4th, unplaced, fell etc.
• Where there is more than one qualifier in a race, both or all selections are backed.
Don`t be deceived by the simplicity of the above. I added various clauses such as distance, going and class in the previous race, and no difference was made to either the percentage of winners, or the profit made. As the phrase goes, `If it isn`t broke, don`t fix it!`
Staking - It is recommended that level stakes betting is utilized for the operation of PJ1. Having tried numerous staking methods the differences to profits were minimal, and certainly not sufficient to warrant abandoning the safety of level stakes.........
Labels: Betting Systems