THE PROFESSIONAL HORSE RACING SYSTEM
Shows how the experts make money from two-year-olds on the flat
METHOD OF SELECTION
1. Betting is confined to races for two-year-olds only of all kinds, including nurseries.
2. To qualify a two-year-old must be the outright winner of two consecutive races at any point in its first season of racing.
3. Qualifiers are backed on their subsequent outings until they lose or record three further successive wins. In this connection dead heats and disqualifications from first place are counted as wins.
METHOD OF STAKING
1. There is a maximum possible total of 4 points on each qualifier made up asfollows:
2. There is a 1 point stake on each outing of each horse as long as it remains a qualifier that is as long as it goes on winning up to three consecutive victories.
3. In addition, there is a 1 point treble on the three system races of each qualifier. A successful treble only results if a horse wins all three races as a system qualifier.
NOTES FOR OPERATORS
The professional backer makes money from horses in several ways. In the first place, he is “in the know” to an extent that no average punter can be. In the second, he is prepared to place big sums in the hope of a percentage return, often supporting several horses in the same race to take maximum advantage of the differing rates of odds available around the ring.
This kind of information, fascinating as it is, has little value to the amateur punter, but there is one trick of the professional trade that every-one can cash in on. I refer to the notorious liking of these experts for two-year-olds.
It is almost certainly true to say that form in two-year-old races is more reliable than in any other kind of event. There are several reasons for this. In the first place, a two-year-old is an enthusiastic animal. It can be depended on to give its best each time it runs – “not genuine” and “non-trier” are epithets which one only hears applied to experienced horses. Second, most two-year-old races are run over a straight course, and this uniformity makes for more reliability in running.
Similarly most juvenile events until later in the season are decided over five or six furlongs – there is no great variation in distance to throw the backer offthe scent. Finally, weight seems to have little “stopping” effect on a good youngster – penalties in non-handicaps are a recommendation rather than a warning signal, and even in handicaps, that is nurseries, well-fancied horses with good form and big weights are more often successful than not. A good system confined to two-year-olds must be well worth its keep.
The one I have in mind is based on the fact that good two-year-olds often runup long winning sequences. There have been instances of youngsters getting into double figures of wins in their first season’s racing, but obviously these are exceptions, and The Professional horse racing system sets its sights a lot lower than that. It assumes that a good two-year-old is capable of running upa maximum sequence of five consecutive victories.
The number of youngsters that actually achieve this target in the course of a season will be small, a half a dozen at most, but assuming the backer can be sure of being on all such youngsters, six of these per season virtually guarantees a big profit, provided that the losses incurred from the inevitable failures are not too great. If the failures, that is the horses which fall short of the five-win maximum, but win a number of races nonetheless, if these can be made to show a profit also, however small, then evidently we have a system with a very high profit potential.
The problem of course is to locate the two-year-olds capable of achieving the feat of a five-timer. Selective criteria which aim to isolate those two-year-oldsLIKELY to do so are worth-less, for quite clearly, however good the criteria employed, complete success cannot be guaranteed. Indeed, if, from the hundreds in training, I picked say fifty youngsters I thought capable of winning five races off the reel, I could count myself lucky if I found even one that actually went on to perform the feat. At the same time, it would be wholly unprofitable to back every two-year-old on every outing in order to be sure of being on the tiny minority that do.
Logically the only way of ensuring the inclusion of this minority without the sacrifice of profitability arising from backing shoals of losers is to select only those horses which are already some way towards achieving the target. Hence the basic systems rule. Pick out only those horses which have already won two races and follow them in their next three. This makes it probable that you will have a series of winning trebles in the course of a season from arelatively small body of selections and that every two-year-old which eventually wins five in a row is included in it.
Furthermore, a 1 point stake on each qualifier as long as it goes on winning means that horses which fail to achieve the ultimate goal, yet record sequences of three or four victories, will at least pay for their keep, and possibly provide sufficient profit to offset the cost of complete failures which lose their first race as a system qualifier.
Finally, as way of making the operation of the system absolutely
clear, I recall the case several years ago of a high-class animal which later went on to win a 2000 Guineas. As a two-year-old this horse became a system qualifier after winning two races in mid-summer. It won its next outing at 3/1. This meant a profit of 3 points from that race for the 1 point single, with an additional 4 points to go onto its next race, the second leg of the system treble. This it won, again at 3/1, which produced a further 3 points from the single, and there was now 16 points to be staked on the final race in the treble. Another victory, this time at 11/2, gave another 5½ points from the single bet. The total profit accruing from the successful treble was 103 points.Thus that horse alone was worth 114½ points (3+3+5½+103) to operators of The Professional horse racing system.
Prices in this example were extremely good, and one would be wrong to expect trebles of more than 100/1 every time, but take it from me, half a dozen trebles, even at lesser odds, will be quite enough to produce a good seasonal profit, whether the “failures” make the expected contribution or not.The Professional horse racing system is for serious punters who look upon horses as a medium of investment and act accordingly.
Labels: Betting Systems