Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 10) Stupidity!

10) Stupidity!

Amazingly most punters fail to learn from their mistakes. They continue for years making the same basic errors time and time again. Pure stupidity. Strive to improve your betting performance by continually learning from the mistakes and weakness is your game. Your bookmaker may have been laughing at you for years. You have it in your power however to improve your betting and hopefully wipe that smile from his face for good.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 9) Laziness

9) Laziness

Most punters are LAZY! They have religiously followed a doctrine of poor planning and lack of research. They refuse to study and spend hours looking at how they can win at betting. They refuse to invest in the game and invest in their own learning . You cant refuse to spend money, just look at the racing for 30 minutes and expect to win long term. You simply can't get away with that in the hardest trade of all , Winning Money at Beting. If it was that easy , then millions would do it .You must either invest in your betting , or pay someone to do just that. Natural human tendency is to try and get away with the least amount of effort. Lazy punters are cannon fodder for the bookmakers. They make little or no effort in their selection process nor make an effort to extract maximum returns from their bets. Those who put the most work in are the more likely to succeed. My philosophy is simple. I believe that if a bookmaker, journalist or odds compiler spends 3 hours on a race then I'll spend 6 hours on that race to gain the edge. The famous golfer Gary Player once said "The Harder I Work the Luckier I Get". That is true about both golf and betting .Most people can't spend 12 hours a day studying betting as they have families, jobs, commitments and lead their own lives. That is what you pay us for. We do that study for you and re-invest money in our betting so that we can find every edge possible to Help You Win.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 8) The Grass is Greener

8) The Grass is Greener

The grass is rarely Greener on the Other Side. The truth is that the grass that isn't working for you has not been grown, cultivated or looked after properly. Many punters change approaches and methods so quickly that they don't give any method a true test . If they find a system that works they don't continue after a few bad results . It is the same as gamblers who write down every bet they have . Once they have a few losers they often lose the heart to do this and stop doing so and move on to another area . They are like children with new toys at Christmas . They never stay with any method long enough to prosper . They always feel the" Grass is Greener" , when in truth the "Grass" they are using has been abused and left to deteriorate. They want the next Big "new idea " or "method " and that doesn't work either as the fault lies not in the Grass, but the Gardener .

They have no long term consistency in their betting and are constantly tinkering with what wasn't broke or moving on in search of the holy grail before a full evaluation of what they are currently examining has been completed. A competition to win best garden will be won by the person who can spend most time in the garden and master its challenges, the gardener who is prepared to care about his garden and invest in the tools that will help his garden grow and keep the weeds at bay. It's the same with betting. You will do far better long term if you can make a concentrated effort of learning and research in one key area rather than flitting from this to that.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 7) Emotion

7) Emotion

Betting is a lonely game. Its also a highly skilled game. Emotion undermines success in many ways . There is comfort in knowing that as a sheep when you are wrong it is not your fault as you were simply doing what everyone else was doing. With betting, the laws of market supply and demand, dictate that long term, the sheep will get fleeced. Emotion neutralises discipline and long proven successful practices. The result of any isolated race has little or no relation to races just before that or just after that . Races should be viewed in isolation from each other. We are all emotional in betting but the players at the top of the tree have this down to a fine art and can control those emotions. Other punters have long since been conditioned by bookmakers to EXPECT to lose rather than win. They have an in built psychological factor that makes them feel like losers and they have been conditioned to losing by years of doing so. Over 95% of punters are flawed emotionally. Examples of emotive gambling include punters following a horse ,trainer or a jockey blind . The "Hype" horses are cannon fodder for emotional punters. They may also follow tipsters blind as they "hate" the thought of missing out on a winner. They pay no attention to the changing conditions of a race that may follow non runners or the ground changing. They missunderstand confidence and can't cope with a lack of confidence. Emotion also prevents people from advanced betting subjects such laying , hedging and arbitrages. Emotion forces some punters to bet horses with certain names that remind them of loved ones. Names such as "Long Tall Sally " and "Susan's Pride " attract many to them just for a name that's relevant to them . Most punters have a grudge against their own money and winning and being successful is alien to them. Emotional punters lose their heads in barren times and fail to capitalise on winning runs. They mess about with systems and staking plans that make no sense. The more emotion you can rule out of your betting , the more successful you will become . You have to view everyone in the game as your enemy and as people trying to take your hard earned money away from you in the same way as you would a pickpocket . Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably .

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 6) Lack of Discipline

6) Lack of Discipline

Lack of Discipline is the big hurdle for punters trying to turn a losing hobby into a winning one. Bookmakers know that. That's why in every betting office you can bet on numbers, lotteries, ball games, racing from all over the globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as they call it, virtual racing. Bookmakers just believe that its a case of punters sitting all day betting on what ever is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases .They are simply thrill seeking and don't care what they bet on, as long as they can bet. There is no methodology at all and many betting office regulars are simply a bunch of headless chickens prepared to pay long term for the warming buzz of the occasional win. Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets that they know are stupid always let themselves down by continually bleeding their profits with a fun tenner here and a fun tenner there. It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a horse when the price isn't right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet. It takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional buzz of watching your runner. Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first place, was the effort they put in. They fall victim to over confidence, laziness and indiscipline. Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 5) Greed For Instant Wealth

5) Greed For Instant Wealth

Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, andGoliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate. It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between. You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 4) Lack of Value Appreciation

4) Lack of Value Appreciation

Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success. To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value". There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have . The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 3) Chasing Losses

3) Chasing Losses

Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit. Chasing losses is a game for the illinformed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in ,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day . There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you havecircumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race".

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 2) Failure to Stake Correctly

2) Failure to Stake Correctly

It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank. Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run. We have long since established here a strike rate of about 35% on our Best Bet selections and at an average S.P. of over 5/2 for each winning bet. We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - 1) Failure to Use Betting Banks

1) Failure to Use Betting Banks

Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependant upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone.

The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital. With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.

Top Ten Betting Mistakes - GENERAL

The first step to formulating a solution is to define the problem.

The following points are areas of betting where many punters often get it wrong. My views arise from long personal experience and years of communication with succesful and unsuccesful punters alike. My aim here is to highlight these common areas of failure in the hope that I can speed up your learning curve towards succesful betting. Read the following thoughts and you may be able to side step many of the pot holes others have fallen into in the past.

Ten golden rules of successful betting

1) Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

That should be blindingly obvious - but sadly too many amateur punters just take a risk, hoping that this one will be the big win they need. The only way to stand a chance of winning over the long term is to have a consistent plan and to use a dedicated betting bank that contains no more money than you would be prepared to lose entirely in the worst of circumstances. Once you start staking amounts you can't afford to lose your judgement will inevitably be affected. Also, there's no thrill in putting your financeal future, or even your family's financial future on the line. Decide on the maximum wager you feel comfortable with. It doesn't mean you have to be happy to lose it. Just that you can afford to lose it if the worst should happen. Otherwise your betting will go nowhere.

2) Remember there are no certainties.

If you study probability you will learn that absolutely NOTHING is impossible. No matter how big a cert something looks, never bet your last penny on it. Scientists only talk in probabilities. It is regarded as highly unlikely that the moon will crash into the earth tomorrow - but it is not impossible. The odds of winning the UK national lottery are 14,000,000 to one - but almost every week someone wins it. However much you may feel you are on to "a good thing", only ever commit a small proportion of your available funds to it. When things go wrong - as sometimes they WILL then you will live to fight another day.

3) Be flexible in your approach

There is more than one way to win in betting. An approach that works for one punter may not work for another. Experiment to find the approaches that work for your betting and then spend enough time with them to let them work over time. At the same time, however, do not close you mind to other possibilities. There are many approaches you can study to back, lay, trade, arbitrage, bet in running, use software to enhance trading or staking. Among the free systems we'll send you from freehorseracingsystems.com you may well find two or more methods that, when combined together, give you the magic edge.

4) Keep a record of your bets

Keeping records is ESSENTIAL. You can start to build up a picture of the bets that work for you and those that don't. Without keeping records you are shooting in the dark. Of course it's tough to have to write down those painful losing bets when you'd prefer to forget them, but if you want to make a long-term success of betting you need a record of your failures as well as your successes. If you can use a spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel or similar then that can help you to easily analyse profitable statistics. If not then at the very least a dedicated paper notebook should be there to do the job.

5) Don't bet on emotion

Betting on situations when you have an emotional envolvement is to be avoided at all costs. It should be obvious, but never bet on your favourite soccer team just because you are desperate to see them win. Your bets should be guided by the VALUE that you can get from a win. Not just what you think is the likelihood of a win. The most successful punters have no emotional involvement in the outcome of a sport. If you want to watch a race or a match for the enjoyment of the game then do that without betting on it. It also means you won't have the possibility of a double disappointment if your favourite team loses and you also lose a bet.

6. Bet only in situations where you think you have an edge.

If everyone else knows what you know then you can be sure the prices for your "sure bet" will be at their lowest. You may make a modest profit this time but betting this way over the longer period will never bring you a consistent profit. Look for horse races or other bets where you think the odds on offer are more than they should be for the true likelihood of winning - call these "Value Horses" - and you'll have profits to be proud of over the longer term.

7. Don't let strange results throw you.

As I said in part 1, there is no such thing as a certainty. So you need to make sure you are not thrown by turnarounds you were not expecting. If you are following a really good race horse that gives you great expectations and he meets an unexpected defeat, don't let that one event put you off backing him in the future. Week in week out, favourites that have been beaten last time out come home on their next outing. It infuriates punters, but they only have themselves to blame. Take time to analyse an unexpected defeat and you may well see that a good opportunity is still just around the corner whilst the less wise majority have given up on him.

8. Look for situations where others are betting emotionally.

I said in part one that you shouldn't bet with emotion. However, there are opportunities when you can see that others are doing exactly that. In times when everyone is looking for instant gratification there are plenty of times where punters are too easily deceived by a single good performance. Often the press will start writing up the chances of a two year old racehorse for the following year's Derby or Guineas after only one or two good performances. So punters will then start backing ante-post on emotion only. On race day however, you may well find better value with other runners. On soccer, London teams are often at shorter prices than the should be simply because so many of the country's fans live in the capital and will emotionally back their home sides. You can profit from the folly of others.

9. Plot a strategy

Get a strategy and stick to it. Don't bet on whims. That doesn't mean you should be inflexible but do bet in a structured way. If you place small bets for fun on weekdays then at least try to take your weekend bets as a serious business with heavier wagers. Better still 'though, cut out the "fun" bets altogether. Ultimately there's far more fun in consistently winning than haphazardly losing.

10. Enjoy your betting

To put it another way - just know when to STOP. Keep a check on yourself and always try to be honest if you ever feel that betting is running away with you. A long losing run tells you you should change your system. If you've followed the other rules 'though you won't gave got into a situation where you are painfully losing money. Be prepared to stop and take stock. Betting should be a pleasure - but not an adrenaline rush. If you ever feel you need help to get back in control, take it sooner or later.

NEAL’S NOTES

Never ring and ask a person for their opinion if you do not intend to take any notice.

Always stick to your original selections and number of bets and do not chase losses.

*** This “chase loses” from me and “do not” from others can make you confused. Most of this folks think not chase on same cup or play. Almost all point not to chase in horses. My chase is on types of game with high probability and low randomness like goals in football. I tend to explain that covered system contains chase but totally unrelated to losses occurred. Closed system start from make profit, regardless of chasing in 2 or 3 or 4 rows. It starts with lower risk on better probability and function to end of having all sequences profiting with rising stake and bending risk. But if you keep it above 75% of wins you will understand need for to cover and have system better boxed and fully circled.

MITCHELL’S TOP TEN

1. With the current maximum number of meetings jockeys can ride in per week being nine, look out for a top name having just the one ride on an afternoon card before going on to a later meeting, or making the teatime effort at a late fixture for the one booking.

2. Never, never, never back a horse in a three mile plus chase with over 11 stone on its back. I know the odd one will creep in but, generally, this is the best value call in racing.

3. Look for a top man over jumps doing a light weight for a yard he seldom rides for.

4. Number crunch the stats of an established race before you have a bet. They are readily available and mean everything to finding winners.

5. Check trainers you follow at a course where you know their target horses: Victor Dartnall and Nick Williams at Uttoxeter, for example.

6. Always look for course specialists at ‘freak’ tracks such as Carlisle, Kelso and Towcester. Southwell is a punter’s paradise as long as you stick to the regulars and take your time in picking when they are handicapped to strike.

7. Know your trainers and look for well-handicapped horse transfers to yards which are renowned for their first time out strike-rate. Sir Rembrandt was a classic case in point when he won at the Paddy Power meeting in November 2007. He left Robert Alner for the harder training regime of Victor Dartnall and was a 15-2 certainty on the day.

8. Watch the top apprentices in the Heritage Flat handicaps. With confidence high in the saddle those seven-pound, five-pound and three-pound claims really do make a difference, as Dark Missile (22-1) and William Buick showed in the 2007 Wokingham.

9. Please don’t get lazy on draw preferences which are more important than I can emphasise. Use the draw as a crucial part of ‘working’ a race when you are getting the likely tactics sorted out.

10. Always read ‘Value Scope’ in the Daily Mirror on Saturdays.

FLINT AND NORTH’S TEN GOLDEN RULES

1. You don’t have to bet – patience and choosing your moment to strike are virtues often rewarded.

2. Every runner has a right and a wrong price. 4/6 may be generous while 6/1 may be niggardly. Learn to estimate odds in advance – then look for value.

3. Tote odds often provide you with extra profit.

4. Even form figures that read 000 or 00 or just 0 need the closest scrutiny.

5. Tote speciality bets often provide amazingly good value – especially when favourites are beaten.

6. The state of the going is perhaps the most important single factor of all.

7. Leading jockeys often give a clear indication of their own assessment of their chances. With opportunities to ride at more than one meeting, their mounts at the selected venue should be the subject of special study.

8. Each-way bets on two-year-old races opposing the odds-on favourite will not endear you to the layers, but they should yield a profit. All you need is a thick skin!

9. Bookmakers welcome punters who speculate on the open and difficult looking handicaps. You should avoid them.

10. It is fatal to chase losses or think in terms of getting out on the day. There is always tomorrow, and the day after.

NATIONAL IMPORTANCE

1. Bet to win: Rather than back one or two eachway, back two or four to win. This rule does not apply to ‘pin money’ punters with only one selection to back, as they will get the hump if it finishes second and they get nothing at all back, even though the return will probably only just cover the outlay!

2. Good going: Forget anything priced over 40/1 if the going is soft or better.

3. Past experience: Don’t worry if your fancy has never tackled the race or run over the course before – Red Rum won first time out in the event, and you can overdo the previous experience card.

4. Get heavy: If the going gets heavy, form can go out of the window – time to back a couple of outsiders.

5. Ones to watch: Those who ran well at Cheltenham but without having too hard a race are worth putting on the shortlist.

6. Ones to miss: Dour stayers aren’t the best selections – they will probably stay the trip – but at a pace to suit themselves.

7. Form factor: Look for a gradual improver from a shrewd stable which has been trained just for this day, but never forget the hurly burly of this race can scupper even the best laid plans.

8. Stick to your guns: Do NOT change your mind once you have picked out a runner.

9. Talking shop: Never be intimidated from having a bet because you are a betting shop novice – either bet online or remember that betting shops want your business and, of all days, staff are ready, willing and able to be gentle with virgins on National day.

10. Real McCoy: He hasn’t won it yet – but Tony McCoy WILL do a Frankie Dettori – who had never won the Derby until 2007 – and eventually win the biggest race in his chosen sport. So always have at least a couple of quid on him so that you can celebrate along with AP when it happens.

PULLEIN’S POINTERS

‘When betting on whether [football] managers will lose their jobs, what matters is the world as it is, not as it should be.’ Pullein points out in January 2008 that it is, ‘pointless worrying about what should happen. Just think about the sort of things that do happen.’

‘When thinking about whether a bookmaker’s price might be wrong we could start by assuming it is right. We would then examine all information from every perspective to see whether there was any way it could be considered consistent with that assumption. Only if the possibility was very small indeed would we accept the alternative, conclude that the price was probably wrong and have a bet.’

‘Teams who appear to be either home specialists or away specialists are really experiencing a freak sequence of results, which started for no reason and will soon end for no reason.’

‘You are almost always better off betting in singles rather than in multiples.’

‘Try to make sure that you are watching because you have had a bet, rather than having a bet because you are watching.’

‘No matter how good a British club may be, they are rarely quite as good as the bookmakers would have us believe for a European tie.’ ‘Assess teams on their merits and ignore reputations’ – Pullein’s May 2008 play-offs’ advice

Observe the 10 per cent rule: if you’ve decided to invest £1,000 in ten tranches of £100 and your first horse loses, then stake next time not £100, but £90, then 10 per cent of what you have left and so on.

Most gamblers chase each loss. When they lose they bet more heavily on the next one. When they win they tend to hold on to the profit for later. That’s the wrong way to gamble. It should be exactly the other way around.

*** Smart players cover loss. Not chasing it and never chasing it blindly or beyond losing margin. In sequence betting you cover to point of pure profit, just profit or low loss. Don’t bet that thanksgiving turkey will fly rather find good pigeon to cover flight.

Superior novice hurdlers who won last time out making their seasonal debut in novice chases are usually a good bet (contrary to popular belief). In fact, on average, you win more times than they fall.

In big 16-plus runner handicaps, more than 50 per cent of the winners come from the first four in the betting. Eliminate the rest and concentrate your study on these fancied horses.

The professional gambler has to learn to live with disappointment without allowing it to cloud their decision-making ability. Whenever I have a losing streak, I take a holiday. It’s very hard to continue making the right judgments if you’re losing. You tend to chase your losses. DON’T.

*** I never agreed with no chase rule know why too. There is always systematic approach to both lose and win just don’t overflow stakes. It s always better to chase 1$ loss over 90% of 1$ wins then to chase single loss of 100$.

Avoid odds-on shots. You don't have to bet.

HOW TO NICK THE NATIONAL WINNER

1. Award five points to entries that raced off a handicap mark of at least 137 that same season.

2. Five points if they had previously reached the first three in a steeplechase with at least 13 runners.

3. Five points if they had already won over at least three miles.

4. Another five points if they’ve won over three miles three furlongs plus, or reached the first three in one of the big five Grand Nationals –Aintree, Irish, Scottish, Welsh, Midlands.

5. Five points if they did not race as a novice chaser in the previous season.

6. Five points if they had completed the course in a field of 18 or more on a chase track where more than 8.5 per cent of runners have fallen in the past decade.

7. Five points if they are set to carry less than 11 stones 2 pounds.

8. Five points if they ran over hurdles this season.

9. Five points if they’ve won no more than once in their last six runs.

10. Five points if they were not bred in France.

11. Five points if they’ve ever earned a Racing Post rating higher than 145.

12. Five points if they haven’t worn any headgear this season.

Mordin suggested using horses which score 55 or more points as a basis for finding the winner, and explained, ‘Some of them, I concede, look a bit odd. But believe me, they work.

MORDIN’S METHODS

1. The goal of a system is not to pick winners but to identify a type of horse that the betting public consistently underrates.

2. The best systems are based on facts which defy most punters’ expectations.

3. Be suspicious of any system based on information that can easily be gleaned from your daily racing paper.

4. If a system is based on readily accessible information, it must use that information in an unexpected way.

5. If you can’t describe a system in a short sentence the idea behind it is almost certainly not strong enough to make it produce the greatest profits over a particular period.

6. Don’t bend the rules of a system to fit the results.

7. Do not expect a system to continue being profi table when the circumstances that gave rise to it change.

8. Avoid systems whose success is based on an inadequate sample of results.

9. Always remember that the betting market will eventually adjust to take account of any successful method for identifying winners.

10. Don’t follow any system blindly.

THE KNIFE

‘Contests with only two possible results have always been an Achilles heel for bookies.’ With some of the recent accusations about tennis matches it is easy to see why that is the case.

‘Never, ever back Ernie Els – the man’s a bottle merchant supreme.’ McGovern first said this is 1999 and believes it to this day. In June 2008 he told me, ‘Yep, I definitely stand by that Els thing. Witness the tournament towards the end of last year that he threw away.’

‘In sport an each-way bet more often than not is a wasted bet. In a contest like Wimbledon or the Open Championship I would far rather back two players on the nose than one player each-way. And straight win bets on players who do progress to the later stages often offer opportunities for hedging.’

Bookies always like to churn out special markets for the big games and in their efforts to hit the 100-market mark they can often push things in our favour. And so it happened... hidden deep among the multitude of markets from William Hill for the 2003 FA Cup Final up popped a market called ‘Massage Parlour’. Quite simply it was 9-2 for the Gunners’ Ray Parlour to be treated by the physio on the pitch at any time in the match.

Now, players always claim they never read papers – in the same way they never bet or drink! But on the morning of the game we knew, just knew, that someone in the Arsenal camp would spot our Sun headline urging Mr Parlour to hit the deck during the match. It wasn’t match fixing – just a small manipulation of a 30-second spell during the game. Nothing more. Nothing less.

‘Come on, Ray – do it for us punters,’ begged our article. And on we plunged – friends, relatives and work colleagues alike. Even my dad had a tenner and he bets in five pence stakes!

But would Ray Parlour take the bait? Would he play along? In centre midfield the feisty redhead was always likely to pick up a knock and as the game kicked off we watched intently, caring not a hoot about who won but plenty about Mr Parlour’s well-being. By half-time I was convinced we’d been done. Parlour had ridden some heavy tackles and been sent sprawling by one particular assault from a Saints muscleman. But each time he got up, dusted himself down and carried on without the need of physio Gary Lewin. Bastard!

‘Keep the faith,’ I told the many co-conspirators who rang up nervous, sweating and anxious during the halftime interval. But I didn’t really believe, either. Nearly 20 minutes of the second-half passed with Parlour calm, unflustered and dominant in midfield, riding tackles like the consummate pro he was. We’d given up on the bet. And then out of nowhere… Halle-bloody-lujah! Southampton’s Chris Marsden made partial contact with our Ray and he fell to the turf. The cameras panned away. Agony for us. Was our man hurt? Oh please. Not a broken leg or anything like that. But a little muscle strain worthy of Gary Lewin’s cold sponge. Still the cameras focused on the play. Yet suddenly as the ball went out for a throw-in there was music to our ears! Cheering inside the Millennium Stadium. I kid you not. Cheering. And why? Because that oh-so-wonderful Mr Lewin was sprinting onto the pitch to tend the even-more-wonderful Mr Parlour now laying prone. Oh, Ray. Oh, Gary. You beauties! The phone went ballistic – everyone texting or ringing with the same message: ‘Did you hear it? The cheering. The sponge. The dosh.’ We jumped around the living room, already planning a heavy night of celebration. Years on, we still have the 30-inch widescreen TV and top-of-the-range music system we bought on the back of that Cup Final bet. The kids call the TV ‘Uncle Ray’.

I’ll never know if Mr Parlour ever did read that article but the memory of that cheering still brings on a warm glow and proves that hundreds of other people certainly did read it. And bet it too. So, at last, I’ve found out just who was to blame for what we regarded at the time as a slightly unusual gamble which came off. I must admit that bookies can, just occasionally, let their guard down and provide punters with an almost potentially self-fulfilling betting proposition. And we did it again only recently when offering 100/1 about Craig Bellamy, then at Liverpool, scoring a Champions League goal and then celebrating by mimicking the action of swinging a golf club – having been disciplined by his club after a notorious incident involving both a golf club and team-mate John Arne Riesse. Sure enough, there was an old-fashioned gamble on the bet: Bellamy scored, Bellamy waved around an imaginary golf-club, and we were well and truly teed off!