We will look at Handicap races which are more open than other kinds of races and where winners and placed horses tend to start at bigger odds. the difficulty is to locate viable bets at longer prices when the basis of a good system must be form used in one way or another.
A survey over a three-year period demonstrated that class counts in racing and that in flat handicaps horses near the top of the handicap hold the best chance of winning.
The survey showed that 48% of the winners of all flat handicaps are one of the top tour in the weights and over 60% come from the top 6 in the handicap so whilst runners can and do come from lower down in the handicap, statistically they are most likely to stem from the group which heads the weights
As for form without which no system can hope to succeed many horses with sound form in recent runs do perform well even though the market might give them only a slender chance of success. Any horse good enough to reach the first four in each of its last three races must have some chance of reaching a place again and may even win, despite what chance the odds compilers or the Bookmakers give them.
Picking the selections
First of all it is necessary to analyse each handicap on the days cards from the point of view of weight. This is done by applying a sliding scale based on the number of runners in a race.
Handicaps of ten or less runners are ignored as are races of 17 or over
15 or more runners consider the first six in the weights
13 or 14 runners consider the first 5 in the weights
11 or 12 runners -consider the first four in the weights
Then pick out any horses that have run third or fourth in each of their last three outings, which figured in the above specified weight range and they are your selections.
Some days you will have more than one possibility and if you prefer to just back one horse each day then select the one with the biggest forecast odds preferably from The Racing Post. or the opening shows.
Labels: Betting Systems